There is an unexpected competitor: cheap grain from Ukraine. Slovakia has enough of its own and will not die of hunger – Country – Economy
Fears of continued heat and drought, at least from the point of view of the grain harvest, are dispelled after the first half of the harvest. There will be enough for human food and for animals. In fact, approximately one million tons of wheat will increase for export. But there is an unexpected competitor.
Cheap grain from Ukraine. Part of it, instead of going to hungry Africa, remains in Poland and Slovakia, which of course pushes prices down. The Polish Prime Minister promised his farmers a clean transit of Ukrainian wheat to the destination locations. Slovak farmers demand the same from the Slovak government.
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As you can see, the weather and the war in Ukraine have determined completely new coordinates of food security. This is reflected in the economy from the point of view of farmers and in family budgets from the point of view of consumers. Food inflation is breaking records, it is in double digits, and three weeks before the harvest, the local government did not hide the fact that food could be 20 percent more expensive year-on-year in autumn. Even in January, there were forecasts of 5-7 percent growth.
This opinion was supported by the unprecedented growth of wheat prices on the stock exchanges. At the turn of May and June, the price was well above 400 euros per ton of wheat. However, since the beginning of the harvest, they have fallen both in Europe and in the USA. They fell by roughly 30 percent. The Czech Minister of Agriculture, Zdeněk Nekula, has already hinted that food prices will go down, but in Czech and Slovak stores, similarly to gas stations, prices are still rising.
Bread self-sufficiency at 150 percent
At the moment, the situation in the grain market, from which the prices of all basic grains depend, is cloudy, like when wine is fermenting.
What is at least somewhat clear so far? For example, the fact that Slovakia will have enough. Compared to last year, the wheat crop is harvested from an area of 410,000 hectares, which is 53,000 hectares more than a year ago. And so, even with the estimated hectare yield of 5.24 tons (5.61 tons last year), around 2.15 million tons of bread and feed wheat should reach the granaries.
That, said Samuel in the words of the Minister of Agriculture Vlčan, covering the self-sufficiency of the country with a sufficient reserve of over 150 percent.
However, unless everything is collected, optimism must be tempered.
So far, in Slovak granaries, the companies grouped in the Slovak Chamber of Agriculture and Foodstuffs have completed the first half of the harvest. Crops are very different, which was also shown by the harvest trip of Minister Samuel Vlčan and the head of the peasant self-government, Emil Macha, to the south of central Slovakia. In the Rimavská Sobota district, as František Tóth, chairman of the Gemer Chamber, reported, yields jump from less than 4 to a surprising 8 tons per hectare. Last year’s harvest per hectare at the level of 5.2 tons will be perhaps 0.7 tons lower.
Combine harvester in Veľké Teriakovce. Combine harvester in Veľké Teriakovce.
A similar phenomenon can be seen throughout Slovakia. Crops, as Emil Macho said, reflect where the precipitation fell. Eastern Slovakia received the least amount of them, but there are huge differences from farm to farm, one or two storms lifted someone’s harvest, while others were completely brought to their knees by a long-lasting drought.
Livestock farms in a dead end
The drama of the farms where cattle and sheep are raised is not visible on the background of the grain. This is also the family farm Keľo and son from Veľké Teriakovice. Out of over 1,600 hectares of land, 500 hectares are meadows and pastures. The first cut was weak and the second is nowhere to be seen. The grass has turned brown, there is nothing to mow, said Pavel Keľo. Cracks formed in the soil, in which even a mobile phone was lost, painted a picture of Keľ’s dry colleague František Tóth.
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There is a huge shortage of fodder for cattle and sheep herds. Not all economies can rely on the reserves that Keľovec managed to open last year. But they haven’t won either. They calculate that they will also store oat straw as an iron fodder reserve.
“The current drought is worse than the one that affected the south-west of Slovakia in 2017, when the government paid extraordinary compensation of 17 million euros to farmers,” said Emil Macho, chairman of the SPPK. Livestock farms find themselves in a dead end due to the drying up of fodder crops – alfalfa, clover, corn, but also sugar beet, which is a source of cuttings. “We will ask for compensation,” the head of the municipality told the cameras.
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But money cannot buy hay, hay or silage in Slovakia. There are very few of them. Macho said that it might be necessary to turn aid to Poland. In this context, Minister Vlčan said that he is considering financial support for the purchase of technologies that can find grain in special containers. In this way, a replacement for the dream would be made from grasslands that were literally burned by the sun.
Drought forces action. Vlčan described the plan of the department, that the team of experts is finalizing the material on how to adapt the large-scale melioration system to retain water in the country. The point is that the network of canals built in the past on an area of 450,000 hectares effectively retains water in the area in times of drought. Much has been said about the reconstruction of hydromeliorations in recent years. Vlčan pointed out to the public that “now his department has solved for more than 50 million euros, which is aimed at building drawbridges, windbreaks and fishponds. These are so-called joint measures, which should be used by all those who are under pressure.”
Who will Ukrainian grain help and who will harm?
Words are spoken and bread is eaten. How much will it cost after harvest? Only the result of the grain harvest in Europe will show that. Part of the Ukrainian grain transported through Slovakia to African and Middle Eastern countries is supposed to end up in Slovak mills, according to information. Ukrainians are used to quickly empty warehouses, because they are already flowing into them, besides, they need money quickly. At the meeting with Minister Vlčan, the farmers insisted that the duty-free Ukrainian grain should go to people in countries in need, and not that they would support the economy of Slovak farmers.
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Vlčan responded that when Slovakia helped Kyiv both humanitarian and military, I believe that Ukraine will keep the agreements and deliver grain to countries that really need it. “If extremely cheap Ukrainian grain were to flow here, it would cause big problems for Slovakia,” declared Vlčan. He said that Ukraine can count on the use of Slovak transport routes. At the same time, he added that he would issue an instruction for the Central Control and Testing Institute to continuously control the quality of Ukrainian grain.
I will show how it all turns out in the coming days and weeks. The idea that there is nothing easier than growing grain is confronted with extreme weather and a rapidly developing offer on the global market. Growers, traders and processors fight for every penny when selling and buying. Small farmers of 50-100 hectares without warehouses find themselves in the worst situation. It would seem that rape seed or wheat grain is too dry, but it needs to be dried and for every percentage of moisture in excess of the standard, the buyers charge mercilessly high deductions.