Sweden vs Portugal EC 2022 for ladies, odds, selection
Sweden goes for victory despite a draw being enough
With four points to their name on match day three, Sweden does not need to win this match to advance to the quarterfinals.
One point would be enough to secure their place in the knockout phase of the ladies’ European Championship 2022, as Switzerland can not beat them even if they beat the Netherlands due to a worse head-to-head record. But regardless of the arithmetic, there is no doubt that Sweden will go all-out for the victory in Leigh Sports Village on Sunday.
Group C will in practice end with two straight penalties: the winners of Switzerland vs the Netherlands and Sweden vs Portugal advance to the quarterfinals, with the draw benefiting the Dutch and Swedes.
But it would be a risk for any of these teams to actually play for a draw. A fall in that scenario could prove fatal. In addition, Sweden will want to build up some speed ahead of the knockout rounds. No one wants to limp over the finish line in an unconvincing way.
Sweden started the tournament in the second group of favorites, behind Spain, England, France and the Netherlands. Maybe it was unfair. This is a rising team. Sweden finished third in the World Cup three years ago and was second at the 2020 Olympics, which was held in Japan last year. Their squad is well balanced from the back to the front, which is not necessarily true for other teams at this European Championship.
Sweden has not yet shown its best form this summer, but they are growing into the tournament. After guiding this side to back-to-back semifinals in his last two appearances, Peter Gerhardsson will realize the importance of peaking at the right time. While others have received enormous results, Sweden ticks under the radar – and that’s exactly how they like it.
Portugal has performed well but the quarter rose too far
Before a ball was kicked in England this summer, Portugal would surely have been content with a scenario where their quarter-final hopes were still alive on match day three of the group stage. Remember that this is a team that did not actually qualify for the European Championships for women. Portugal finished second in their group and lost to Russia in the playoffs, only to get a place in the tournament when the latter country was sent off.
Given how they came here, Portugal was tipped to fight. But even if a score of six possible is not something to write home about, they are still alive in this competition. Portugal showed no lack of character in their opening match, when they released twice against Switzerland in the opening five minutes but fought back to secure a 2-2 draw. They also found the net twice against the Netherlands in a narrow 3-2 loss.
It is somewhat of a surprise that Portugal have been so effective in attack. It was their weak point in the qualifiers, when they only scored eight goals in eight group games and then drew a blank shot in both legs of the playoffs against Russia.
Excluding their encounters with Cyprus, the weakest team they encountered, Francisco Neto’s accusations averaged only 0.75 goals per game. Their performance in the first two matches of the tournament shows that Portugal is more of a threat than their qualifying record suggested.
Goals at both ends are the best game choice for Sunday’s clash
Portugal caused problems for the back lines in both Switzerland and the Netherlands, so there is a reason why we can expect that Sunday’s settlement in Leigh Sports Village will include goals for both sides. Another reason is the condition in Group C. As we discussed earlier, Portugal will qualify for the knockout phase of the European Championship 2022 for women if they win this match.
This does not mean that they will go crazy in the pursuit of victory, but they will also not be content to sit back and soak up the press for 90 minutes. Even if they start the match at the back, Portugal will at some point have to come out and hand over bodies to attack. That is simply what the situation in the group requires.
Sweden should prove to be too strong overall, and they have an incentive to finish top of Group C to try to avoid France in the quarterfinals – another reason why they will not settle for a draw. But even if they storm into a 3-0 lead, the Swedes may be able to take their foot off the gas when the match wears on.
In that scenario, Portugal would have their chances to score – another reason to back both teams to score.
How to watch Sweden vs Portugal
Law | Sweden vs Portugal |
Place | Leigh Sports Village, Leigh, England |
Time | Sunday, July 17, 2022, 12:00 PM EST |
How to look | ESPN + |