Turkey continues talks with Russia while Sweden stops, Finland NATO Application, says the panel
Turkey has no problem withholding the approval of Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to join NATO while conducting their own talks with Russia on opening Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to allow the transport of grain abroad, said a panel of security experts at Wednesdays.
Pavel Popescu, chairman of a key security committee in the Romanian parliament, spoke at an Atlantic Council event, “I see a trap for entering into individual negotiations” with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not want Europe and NATO to present a united front against Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and the bullying of smaller neighbors such as Moldova and Georgia, he said.
“Diplomacy, however, in the Kremlin,” he said. “We did not understand it for several years.”
To date, talks on demining the waters near Odesa and allowing the escort of merchant ships carrying an estimated 20 million tonnes of grain for export now stored in Ukraine through the Russian blockade have led nowhere.
In the talks in Ankara, Turkey demanded a easing of sanctions against Russia. The latest sanctions were imposed in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Moscow promised during the negotiations not to attack the ships carrying grain, but insisted on inspecting incoming ships to ensure that Western weapons were not secretly sent to Ukraine.
At the beginning of the conflict, Turkey closed the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, which is its right under the Montreux Convention in the mid-1930s. transit points between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, to warships.
Jim Townsend, now a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for New American Security, said: “Turkey considers itself the guardian of the Black Sea.”
“Turkey has done this before” by doing it alone without consulting the United States or NATO. A recent example of this was Ankara’s decision to buy Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. In response, Turkey was pushed out of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter program.
The former Pentagon official noted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running in the election, adding that he “must finally conclude an agreement” with the United States and NATO.
“Dear Turkey, we know your problems,” Popescu said, referring to Turkey’s complaint that the two Nordic countries were providing refuge for Kurdish terrorists. The three nations met in May to discuss the situation, but did not reach an agreement.
Membership applications will be at the top of NATO’s agenda during the meeting in Madrid later this month. To be accepted, all current members must approve the applications.
Popescu added, “we must fix this as a priority” by allowing the two to the alliance to limit Russia’s “capacity in this bloody war.”
As the war is now in its fourth month, “I think lashing is normal” in continued unified action, said Catherine Sendak, a former Defense Department official who specializes in the Black Sea region.
“Populations will push back” on the impact that war-imposed sanctions on Russia have on them. Townsend and Popescu said that this was increasingly true when it comes to energy, both with reference to Germany and Hungary, which are heavily dependent on Russian imports.
Several times during the event, Popescu said, “we need a coach,” referring to the United States, to say “this is the strategic concept” and you do this, others do it. He added that nations, especially in the Black Sea region such as Romania, are asking “what are we doing?” Even before February, Bucharest increased its defense spending in response to previous Kremlin attacks on neighboring states. For years, it has also reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas.
Sendak noted that strategies that worked in the Baltic Sea to counter the growing Russian threat in the north do not necessarily apply to nations around the Black Sea. “We’re finally talking about a region we should have been talking about for 10 years.” The question is “what do you want to see”, and include Moldova and Georgia in the answer.
Within the Department of Defense, Townsend said more studies are not needed. “Let’s not get hung up on paperwork,” he said. “So many times strategy follows actions.” He said that “what is needed today” to strengthen Allies and partners around the Black Sea includes military sales of improved surveillance, intelligence and reconnaissance systems; better maritime awareness and demining capacity; and, should Turkey allow passage, a NATO naval presence.
“It will take money” to do this on NATO’s southeastern flank and it will compete for dollars with planned defense spending for the Indo-Pacific.
Sendak said Congress “has the ability to set the tone” through the National Defense Authorization Act, which is now going through selection in the House Armed Services Committee.
The policy document, which the Senate panel begins marking next week, can set goals for security assistance and cooperation and make decisions on platforms.