Consumption and strong recovery in tourism boosted the economy. Portugal grew 11.9% in the first quarter
11.9% consumption in year-on-year terms, according to data released this Tuesday by the Statistics Institute (IN).
It is necessary, however, to bear in mind that this number has the impetus of a strong base effect, since in the first quarter of last year the country was in confinement, because of the covid-19 pandemic, which penalized heavily. an economic activity.
But the Portuguese economy also registers significant growth in the chain, that is, in comparison with previous months, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at three.6%.
These are figures that guarantee an advanced speed in the month of April, at the end of April, with the growth of the Domestic Product (GDP) in the first three of the year exceeding the best expectations of economists.
They also mean that GDP exceeded the pre-pandemic level in the first quarter, recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019.
One of the pillars of expansion of the Portuguese economy in the first quarter of this year was private consumption.
The INE highlights that “the year-on-year contribution from demand to the year-on-year GDP increased significantly in the first quarter, with emphasis on the sharp growth of private consumption”.
Data from the statistical authority of the month of contribution of domestic demand to the demonstration of the national volume of 5.2 percentage points (pp021 to 10.1 pp in the first three quarters of 2022).
In terms of domestic demand, the INE highlights the growth in consumption (aggregate that includes final expenditure by Non-Profit Institutions at the End of Households), with components one functions, the Private sector, of 12.6% in the first quarter in real terms (54, 4% in the first quarter in real terms % in the previous quarter). This is largely due to the growth of the economy in various service activities, after the survey of most economic activities in the context of the covid-19 pandemic.
At the same time, public consumption increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 2.8 pp more than in the previous quarter, “also reflecting a base effect associated with those imposed in January and February 2021 in the context of the pandemic”, explains INE.
Investment has slowed, from a growth of 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021, to 5.4% in the first of 2022.
A slowdown explained by the first inventories company (variable), which went from contributions of 0.2 pp to the fourth homologous GDP in the quarter of 2021, a contributor of -0.1 pp in the quarter of 2022.
As for Gross Formation (GFCF) – the key to analyzing investment behavior – it increased by 5.8% in year-on-year terms in the first three months of the year, a fixed rate to that observed in the fourth of 2021.
The resumption of tourism
Another of growth levers in the first quarter of this year is the recovery of tourism. As the economy is already advanced, ‘saving in the sector’ economic growth in Portugal. And the main factors that led the Commission and the International Monetary Fund to revise upwards the scenarios for the expansion of Portuguese GDP this year, despite the war in Ukraine and the escalation of inflation.
INE highlights that “the positive external reading for the resolution of GDP also increases, verifications of Goods and Services of Verification of Volume and Contribution of an Import of Imports and Services, reflecting a strong recovery of Goods and Services of Verification of Imports and One of the Imports and Exports Services, reflecting a strong recovery of Goods and Services in tourist activity”.
Thus, in the first months of this year, the contribution of net external demand to the year-on-year GDP increased to 1.7 pp (0.7 pp in the previous quarter).
It was the result of the goods and services researcher, going from a person of 6.1 homologous to 18% in the 4th quarter to 18% of goods and services in a greater volume 13.1% in homologous quarter terms, a rate lower than that observed in the previous quarter13.6%).
The INE points out that this evolution of exports “was due to the behavior of exports of services, which continues to be significant, increasing the evolution of a year-on-year evolution of 5% in the fourth quarter to 67.2%, reflecting the effects of the base pronounced, associated with the pandemic context”.
And explains that the result of the first quarter of 2022 is from the first quarter of 2022 and is associated with tourism2022, associated with tourism, which grew 121.5% in the previous quarter and -2.9% in the 1st quarter of 2021)”.
On the other hand, the first exports of goods slowed down in the quarter of the year, to a year-on-year level of 3.7% (4.6% in the 4th quarter).