How serious is Turkey’s Erdogan in denying Finland and Sweden NATO membership?
WASHINGTON (AP) – With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan taking an increasingly hard line against Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership proposals, despite much less harsh statements from some of his best aides, US officials are trying to determine how serious the often mercury-like leader is and what it can take to make him back off.
In the midst of the contradictory signals from Ankara about the applications before they were submitted on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his Turkish counterpart in New York in a new attempt to clarify Ankara’s position after previous attempts only seem to have clouded the situation.
LOOK AT: The ambassadors of Finland, Sweden discuss the aspiration to join NATO and the security of the future in Europe
To underscore the sensitivity of the sensitive diplomacy required to deal with a potentially reluctant ally, the Biden administration seems to have taken it upon itself to ignore Erdogan, saying he could not allow the two nations to join NATO because of their alleged support. for groups that Turkey sees as a security threat. Instead, the administration focuses on comments made at closed-door meetings of lower-ranking Turkish officials.
“It is not for us to speak for the Turkish government,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ned Price repeatedly said on Tuesday in response to several questions about what the United States perceives Turkey’s position as and whether Turkey had demanded anything from the United States in exchange for consent to Finland and Sweden’s membership.
The United States and its NATO partners have an opportunity to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by strengthening and expanding the alliance – the exact opposite of what President Vladimir Putin hoped to achieve when the war began.
But Erdogan’s proposal that he could trace Sweden’s and Finland’s membership hopes also highlights a potential weakness that Putin has tried to exploit in the past – the difficult nature of the consensus-driven alliance where a single member can block action supported by the other 29.
Originally seen in Washington and other NATO capitals as an easily resolved minor distraction for the process of expanding the alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan’s verbal salvos against Finland and Sweden raised more concerns when the two Nordic nations submitted formal applications on Wednesday. hope to join as soon as possible.
Even if they are overcome, objections from Turkey, which is the only one of NATO’s 30 members that have so far expressed reservations about expansion, could delay Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to the alliance for months, especially if other nations follow suit. for their votes.
Erdogan, who has become increasingly authoritarian over the years, is known for being an unpredictable leader and there have been times when his words have been in clear conflict with what Turkish diplomats or other senior officials in his government have said.
“I do not rule out a possible break between Turkish diplomats and Erdogan. There have been examples of such links in the past,” said Barcin Yinan, a journalist and commentator on Turkish foreign policy. when the Turkish leader threatened to expel 10 Western diplomats, including the US ambassador, whom he accused of interfering in Turkey’s judiciary.
For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Berlin on Sunday after discussions with Turkish officials that “Turkey has made it clear that its intention is not to block membership.” At the same time, Blinken and other foreign ministers, including Germany’s top diplomat Annalena Baerbock, expressed absolute confidence that all NATO members, including Turkey, would welcome the two newcomers.
READ MORE: Putin says Finland’s NATO membership would damage relations
But on Monday, Erdogan surprised many by doubling his criticism of Finland and Sweden, accusing them of supporting Kurdish militants and others whom Turkey considers terrorists and of imposing restrictions on military sales to Turkey.
“None of the countries has an open, clear stance on terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said. “We can not say ‘yes’ to those imposing sanctions on Turkey, to join NATO, which is a security organization.”
Asked about the difference, Price, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, says only that Blinken, after meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavuoglu and others over the weekend, “came from there with the same feeling of confidence that there was a strong consensus to let Finland in and Sweden enters.” in the alliance if they choose to join, and we are convinced that we will be able to maintain that consensus. “
Gonul Tol, head of Turkey’s program at the Middle East Institute, said that although Erdogan often speaks loudly, he tends to get around in the end and do it “rationally”.
“Erdogan is unpredictable. But at the same time he is a very pragmatic actor,” she said. Tol said that Erdogan likes to negotiate and pushes for “maximalist demands” during the negotiations. ” she said.
She noted that Erdogan’s complaints to the West about the Kurds were not new and that tensions between Turkey and the United States over military supplies were long-lasting.
After being dropped from the F-35 Advanced Fighter Development Program after purchasing a Russian air defense system, Turkey has pressured the United States to sell the new F-16 fighter jet or at least renovate its existing fleet. Discussions on both issues are taking place in Washington this week, and some officials believe that even if they are not related to NATO’s enlargement issue, resolutions on both could help persuade Erdogan to drop his objections.
Tol agreed, saying: “This is happening at a time when he is trying to forge ties with Washington, when Turkey is involved in negotiations to persuade Congress to sell the F-16 to Turkey. This is a time when Erdogan is trying to polish his image as a “And this is a time when the invasion of Ukraine has given him an opportunity to reach out to Western capitals. Against this background, it would be a very dramatic step if Turkey actually vetoes Finland’s and Sweden’s application.”
Phrases reported from Ankara, Turkey.