Finland, Sweden’s NATO movements create fear of Russian cyber attacks
Finland’s and Sweden’s move to join NATO has raised concerns about potential cyber reprisals from Russia, which see the enlargement of the alliance as a direct threat.
Although it is too early to assess how Russia may try to use its cyber capabilities against Finlad, Sweden or other NATO members, including the United States, experts said it is likely to launch unsophisticated and small-scale cyberattacks as a form of protest against expansion.
Such attacks would not have the same rigorous cyber efforts that Moscow launched against Ukraine in the midst of the Russian invasion of the country.
“I think it is unlikely that Russia will launch the kind of cyber attacks against Finland and Sweden that it did with Ukraine, mainly because the purposes are different,” said Jason Blessing, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Blessing said that since Russia does not intend, at least for the time being, to invade Finland or Sweden, it may use a different cyber tactic than it did with Ukraine to get its message across.
He added that it was likely that Russia would launch unsophisticated types of attacks, including defacing websites and deploying denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks to disrupt its enemies’ networks rather than launch full-scale cyber warfare.
“[Attacks] which essentially represents a protest against their requested membership in NATO, “said Blessing.
Russia is not happy about the prospect of Russia and Sweden joining NATO and promised earlier this week to take “retaliatory steps” if Finland were to go through with plans to join the military organization of 30 nations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees NATO’s expansion as a direct threat. Ukraine’s talk of joining NATO was part of Moscow’s motivation for its invasion.
The fact that Finland is now considering joining NATO is also an illustration of how Moscow’s war has hit back hard.
The United States has expressed its support for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and President Biden spoke on Friday with the leaders of the two Nordic countries.
Foreign Minister Antony Blinken will also meet the Swedish and Finnish foreign ministers and NATO members in Berlin on Saturday, where officials will probably draw up the roadmap for the countries to join the alliance.
The process would probably go much faster than previous tenders to the alliance, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last month that both nations would be welcomed into the organization if they decided to join and could quickly become members.
The potential additions to NATO would be significant as both countries have long avoided military alliances and strived for neutrality.
Finland, which shares an 830 km long border with Russia, most recently fought the Kremlin in 1944 when it was the Soviet Union. And Sweden has not had a military alliance for more than 200 years and instead chooses to cooperate with NATO.
The prospect of retaliation is a real concern for Finland and Sweden.
On Friday, a Finnish network operator announced that a Russian energy company will shut down its electricity imports to Finland from Saturday.
Finnish politicians have also warned that Moscow can quickly turn off gas to the country, Reuters reported, citing local media. The Kremlin used such tactics in Poland and Bulgaria last month in response to Western sanctions.
In April, Finland was hit by a denial-of-service attack that temporarily shut down the websites of the country’s foreign and defense ministries. The attack occurred while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was speaking to the Finnish parliament.
Josephine Wolff, associate professor of cybersecurity policy at Tufts University Fletcher School, said the attack was “a relatively unimpressive and small-scale cyberattack that required no major technical expertise and only resulted in short-term disruption.”
“About that [attack] is the extent of the cyber capacity that Russia has at hand at the moment, I do not think they will be particularly successful in using cyber attacks to take revenge on Finland and Sweden. “
Blessing also said that since Russia is already busy fighting Ukraine, it may not have the bandwidth at the moment to carry out destructive cyber attacks against the two Scandinavian countries and NATO members.
The experts added that both Finland and Sweden have much more robust cyber capabilities than Ukraine has, and would be in a better position to defend against Russian cyber attacks.
In fact, Finland recently won a NATO cyber defense competition this year. The annual war game, held in Estonia, provides technical training to cyber teams from NATO members and allies. The teams compete against each other in a simulation that aims to help them understand how they best defend their networks against cyber attacks.
“It’s a pretty good indication that they have the talent and the ability,” Blessing said.
Nevertheless, the United States and other NATO member states can help the two Nordic countries if they deem that they need help in cyberspace. Blessing said it would not surprise him if the United States sent one of its “hunting forward” teams with the US Cyber Command to help Finland and Sweden as it did with Ukraine before the invasion.
Wolff added that it is possible but highly unlikely that such assistance from the United States and other NATO countries could lead Russia to launch destructive cyber attacks against these countries.
“I think it is unlikely that helping Finland and Norway would open up the United States – or any other NATO country – to much more significant cyber attacks than helping Ukraine has already done,” Wolff said.
At present, it is a matter of getting each of the 30 member states’ governments to ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO, a requirement for the alliance’s expansion.
However, it may prove tricky, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday expressed opposition to expanding the organization.