Sweden “can not rule out” an attack from Russia if it joins NATO
Sweden is likely to face Russian “provocation and retaliation measures” and can not rule out an armed attack if the country were to apply to join NATO, according to its Foreign Minister Ann Linde.
A cross-party security policy document presented on Friday morning in Stockholm warns that Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a “structural and long-term deterioration of Europe’s security environment” that has left neutral, non-aligned Sweden vulnerable.
Ahead of Sunday’s decision on alliance membership of the ruling Social Democrats, Linde said that a joint application from Finland and Sweden would be “perceived negatively by Russia and lead to response measures”.
“The assessment is that we will not be subjected to a conventional military attack in response to any applications for NATO membership,” she said.
– On the other hand, it has been established that an armed attack on Sweden can not be ruled out.
In the long term, she said that joining NATO would have a “conflict-reducing effect in Europe”, while Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said that it would reduce the “current insecurity” that Sweden is facing “in a security crisis or armed attack”.
The magazine does not make an explicit call for NATO membership, but frames Sweden as a country in a new reality, without any appealing security alternatives.
Bilateral defense alliances are “unrealistic” in Europe due to a “lack of political will among EU member states for collective defense”.
Although Sweden has collaborated with NATO on key missions, including in Afghanistan, the paper notes that “NATO’s collective defense does not include a partner dimension”.
“Within the framework of the current cooperation, there is no guarantee that Sweden would be helped if it was the target of a serious threat or attack,” the report concludes.
Almost three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pressure from Finland and a fluctuation in public opinion have led the ruling Social Democrats to reverse their long-held view – most recently expressed by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in March – that joining NATO would destabilize the region.
Two Swedish parties – the Left and the Greens – have maintained their opposition to an alliance membership. The Left Party warns in the newspaper of “increased risks” that Sweden will be involved in conflicts run by NATO.
“Sweden’s security would thus be jeopardized more by membership in NATO than by continued national autonomy,” said Håkan Svenneling, a left-wing member of parliament and committee member, who said that the speed of the decision-making process in the shock of the war was “directly irresponsible”.
The Green Party warned that a NATO membership would impair Sweden’s ability to promote its traditional role as an alliance-free mediator, which actively works for nuclear disarmament.
– Joining NATO would mean that Sweden agrees to use nuclear weapons as a threat, as part of a defense strategy, says the Green MP Elisabeth Falkhaven.
Pro-NATO opposition parties disagreed, saying that Sweden’s non-aligned security position represented the worst of all possible worlds: seen by Russia as part of the West, but without NATO’s security guarantees.
“Being in such a no-man’s land has not provided any security, only vulnerability,” said Allan Widman of the Liberal Party. “Alone is alone.”