Liberals have a long to-do list after the Slovenian elections
A commitment to “bring our country back to freedom,” businessman and political insurgent Robert Golob rejoiced on the occasion of the victory over the populist, conservative Prime Minister Janez Janša in the Slovenian parliamentary elections on 24 April. Janša, a close ally of Hungarian authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is a controversial figure who has previously been involved in corruption scandals and has recently been accused of attacks. on free media and independent institutions.
Golob’s victory could give liberals in Central and Eastern Europe hope that strong right-wingers can be defeated, and many EU leaders will be relieved that Jansa is no more. But Golob is only the last in a series of political newcomers to take power in Slovenia and is facing a considerable to-do list, and last but not least, he has reversed some of the policies pursued by Janša, who remains a great power.
Golob’s free movement or GS won 34.5 percent of the vote, Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party or SDS 23.5 percent. Also the conservative Nova Slovenija or NSi – the coalition partner of the SDS in the outgoing government – and the center-left Social Democrats or SD and the hard left Left or Left. The General Assembly received the highest share of votes in Slovenia’s post-communist history and is the first party to rule with only one other coalition partner – the SD entering the government, this time again taking over the regular position of the younger coalition and ruler. to the Golob Formation; The Left can also join the government.
“Above all, the result shows that voting against Janez Janša is still the main motivator for the Slovene electorate,” said Aljaz Pengov Bitenc, a Slovene journalist and political commentator who has been Janša’s longtime critic. “This also tells us that Slovenians still love their democracy, human rights and public media, even though they complain about everything all the time and not without apology.”
Janša has been ubiquitous in Slovene politics since the 1980s, when he went from a youth communist leader to a dissident journalist and played a central role in the movement that led to Slovenia’s independence from Yugoslavia. Since then, he has embraced growing populism, linking himself and, to some extent, his country to Orban and other Eurosceptic authoritarians. Like many populists in Europe, he is an admirer of former US President Donald Trump, going so far congratulations to Trump for his “victory” in the 2020 election.
Janša agrees with Trump’s support for using Twitter to attack opponents, real and imaginary, and also opposes the “deep state”, which wants to frustrate the will of the people. He quarreled with the Council of Europe over media freedom and was accused not only of undermining the independence of state broadcasters but also of creating an atmosphere of fear for journalists. His SDS-led government is accused of mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic, and like Slovenian governments of all kinds before it, it has become embroiled in other controversies and quarrels.
Albin Sybera, a Ljubljana consultant and non-resident contributor to the Visegrad Insight think tank, says strong support for Golob shows the rejection of voters by both right-wing populists and left-wing liberals, in part because of recent cultural wars.
A bigger challenge for Golob will be to maintain political success, especially given the challenges he will face as a relative political newcomer at the helm of the new party.
“With Golob’s cabinet, we will probably witness the easing of tensions with the EU due to pressure on the media and the judiciary, which led the outgoing government to criticize, and Slovenia will once again approach the core of the EU,” says Sybera. Janša attacked or insulted virtually all media that were not affiliated with the SDS, including foreign ones.
Sybera says that this transformation is likely to lead Slovenia away from Orban’s policies, as well as those of the Western Balkans, such as Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik.
“I expect a much more pro-European orientation and necessarily a departure from Hungary, which has always been a project of Janša and not Slovenian anyway,” says Bitenc. “For the EU, one problem is less of a concern, at least in the short term.”
Closer cooperation with the Visegrad Four countries – Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – may be planned, although the association is burdened by major differences between Warsaw and Budapest over their approaches to Russia and the war in Ukraine. Sybera says a broader group could be formed, including Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria, a result that Poland is actively pursuing, especially in the framework of the “Three Seas Initiative”, which consists of EU countries in the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. . The initiative, motivated in part by a desire to offset Russian influence in Central and Eastern European countries, has gained additional momentum in recent months.
The new Slovenian government may also seek to re-engage constructively in the Western Balkans and perhaps re-establish closer ties with the Benelux countries – Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg – which flourished under former Liberal Prime Minister Miro Cerar from 2014 to 2018. Bitenc he says that when Janša is no longer in the picture, rumors and a potentially controversial agreement between Slovenia and Croatia over a long-running border and fisheries dispute could be dropped.
Since the Russian invasion on February 24, Jansa has proved to be a vocal supporter of Ukraine, which visited Kyiv in March with the prime ministers of Poland and the Czech Republic. While this was a departure from previous attacks by Slovenian pro-government media on Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Janša’s allies and Janša’s close relationship with Moscow-friendly Orban, Slovenia remained committed to NATO and it seems that this will continue under Golob.
“I do not expect serious deviations from current positions on NATO and Ukraine,” Bitenc said. “If the far left Left is part of Golob’s government, as he indicated, I expect these issues to dissipate in the beginning, and then the Left will occasionally stink after this or that issue in order to calm its base. But as long as Russia’s aggression against Ukraine lasts, it will be a performative policy at best.
A bigger challenge for Golob will be to maintain his political success, especially given the challenges he has outlined: preparing for a possible new pandemic wave, eliminating draconian non-pandemic emergencies, and rapidly drafting and passing a law to strengthen public media autonomy. . Then there is the central issue around which the Freedom Movement has campaigned: tackling climate change and protecting the environment.
These challenges can be particularly acute for a relative political newcomer leading a new party. Golob, a former founder and head of the state-owned energy trading company, took over a small, green-minded party without seats in January and renamed it. The General Assembly is now following in the line of new Slovenian parties that will come to power: Janša’s three direct predecessors in the position of Prime Minister were all leaders of the newly established movements. It will not escape Golob that none of these three parties won enough votes in the April elections to enter parliament.
Each of these new parties has become a magnet for liberal-leaning voters, who, unlike many Central and Eastern European countries, remain a crucial demographic group. “It is practically impossible to predict whether it will be [Freedom Movement] he will survive a four-year term, ”says political analyst Davor Gjenero. But he adds that, even if Slovenia does not have a consolidated liberal party, “the political body of the Liberals has been very stable since the last decade of the 20th century.”
Gjenero compares Janša’s SDS to the Polish ruling conservative-populist party Law and Justice, which is committed to the country’s Euro-Atlantic course but is not as liberal-democratic as the GS. It is clear that the outgoing Prime Minister and his party are likely to remain the main bearers of the political scene.
“His position in parliament is strong, he resents defeat and knows all the tricks in the parliamentary book – and most tricks in other books as well,” says Bitenc. “I expect him to be an outstanding leader of the opposition.”
As for NSi, its moderate brand of conservatism and young leader Matej Tonin has begun to destroy SDS votes. Leaving the government could give her a chance to transform, perhaps even support the government in systemic changes that require a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
No one would rule out a conservative turnaround in the next election, which may come sooner than Golob’s victory shows. But for now, Slovenian liberals have the opportunity to reshape their country.
Andrew MacDowall is a correspondent covering politics, business and the economy, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where he has lived and worked for more than a decade. He has written for publications including the Financial Times, The Guardian and Politico Europe.