Will Sweden and Finland join NATO? Why both countries are considering membership
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson and the Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson sign a security declaration in Harpsund, Sweden. (Photo: via Associated Press)
Both Sweden and Finland consider the prospects for NATO membership before Russias invasion of neighboring Ukraine and its ongoing military aggression.
Joining the US-led military alliance would mean a radical break in the policies of both Northeast European countries, which again underlines how Vladimir Putins aggression has reshaped the post-Cold War regime.
On Wednesday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson toured both countries and formalized bilateral security agreements during a whirlwind 24 hours. Johnson said his government would give countries “whatever is requested” as part of the new pact.
Here are some of the questions that have led the Nordic countries to rethink joining the 30-nation alliance.
Boris Johnson and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto speak at a press conference at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland. (Photo: FRANK AUGSTEIN via Getty Images)
What is NATO?
The military alliance goes by the abbreviation NATO.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed in 1949 to prevent the resurgence of nationalism and militarism in Europe after two world wars, and to deter the expansion of the Soviet Union.
Its membership has increased to 30 member states, and in the 1990s and 2000s its extension extended further east to the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
They agree on mutual defense – military action – in response to an enemy attack. The principle is: “An attack on an ally is considered an attack on all allies.” This is Article 5 of the NATO Constitution.
NATO member states in Europe. (Photo: PA Graphics via PA Graphics / Press Association Images)
Ukraine is not a member of NATOwhich is the main reason for Western support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy have failed to put their troops on the ground. Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been a stated goal dating back to its 2002 constitution, but Ukraine’s president has accepted that his country cannot join at present.
NATO’s expansion has been Putin’s biggest public outcry against the West during the build – up to the war, in which he claims expansion to the east and potentially sweeps up the promises of the other major former Soviet republics.
Adding Sweden and Finland is also likely to trigger Putin’s anger. Moscow has warned it could deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad – sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania – if they did.
NATO has been adamant that it will not accept borders for the nations it recognizes and has always maintained an “open door policy”.
What is the position of Finland and Sweden?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the border to apply for NATO membership, a move that would put an end to strong military neutrality for the two European nations.
Finland, which shares a 1,300 km (810 km) border with Russia, and neighboring Sweden will announce their decisions in the coming days.
All applications will have a tense wait for the months it takes to be ratified by all NATO members, although the Alliance and the White House have said they are convinced that any security issues can be addressed in the meantime.
Both countries have been non-aligned militarily since World War II, but have advanced toward their current position in response to an increasingly belligerent Russia.
Finland and Sweden switched from formal neutrality to military freedom of alliance in 1995 when they joined the European Union, and both have approached NATO in recent years, exchanging intelligence and participating in alliance exercises.
What is “Finnishization”?
Finland became independent from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during World War II, where it lost some territory to Moscow.
Finland signed an agreement on friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance with Russia in 1948, which cemented a certain degree of economic and political dependence and isolated it militarily from Western Europe. The strict policy of neutrality is called “Finnishisation”.
The end of the Cold War, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, allowed Finland to escape the shadow of Russia as the threat from Moscow diminished.
It has relied on its own military deterrence and friendly relations with Moscow to maintain peace. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the perception of relations with Russia as “friendly” has been undermined.
Opinion polls show that support for membership in Finland is high, with people aware of the long land border that the country shares with Russia. The support in the Riksdag for an application is also broad.
Sweden’s cuts after the Cold War
Sweden has not fought a war in 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.
It reduced its military after the Cold War and reduced defense spending by up to four percent of its GDP to about one percent in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Despite Putin’s offensive, many on the left in Sweden are still suspicious of the US security agenda and NATO, which ultimately relies on the deterrent provided by the US nuclear arsenal.
Surveys show that a significant majority of Swedes return to NATO, with a support of just over 60% in the latest survey, and there is a majority in parliament for an application.
When could they join?
Finland has a NATO alternative, a kind of action plan that gives a mandate to apply if the security situation deteriorates, while the Swedish Parliament will present a new security policy review on Friday, although the latter is not expected to contain any explicit recommendation on NATO. .
Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats have called for a parliamentary debate on NATO on Monday. Should the party, as expected, return, the government can call for a vote to send through an application, but this is not formally required.
This article was originally published on HuffPost UK and has been updated.