The fact that Finland and Sweden join NATO shows how terribly Vladimir Putin has miscalculated
Their proposed bid looked unlikely just weeks before the outbreak of war on February 24.
“Surveys since the late 1990s have been remarkably consistent [with] 60 to 70 percent of people oppose NATO membership, even after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, ”said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher at the Finnish International Institute.
“Now about 65 percent of people support it.”
It will climb even higher if the Finnish management goes out to apply, he reckons.
Despite the dark legacy of the Winter War of 1940, Finns have maintained close cultural and economic ties with Russia for decades.
However, the conflict in Ukraine has driven a historically strained relationship to a tipping point, according to Tanja Jääskeläinen, Deputy Director General of the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“It is clear that the invasion has really affected the relationship between our two countries,” she said, adding: “But we must make an effort to maintain channels for cooperation on migration issues, crime prevention, transport. [and] security of supply within the sanctions. “
Finland has been praised for its military readiness and has planned for a conflict long before the fall of the Soviet Union.
National conscription is still mandatory for all men. The country has about 900 0000 reservists, from a population of only 5.5 million.
Sweden similarly has an impressive military, especially in its submarine force and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft (ISR).
Clearly visible on flight tracker websites, Sweden’s ISR plan is regularly patrolled on the edges of Ukraine and Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.
Comparable NATO assets, especially the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone flown by the US Air Force, are often found at shipyards in the same small parts of the airspace.
That the Swedes and NATO have been able to avoid an incident in the skies is impressive and nods to cooperation. Maybe even coordination?
“We are so close, we are practically already members,” Peter Hultqvist, Sweden’s defense minister, told The Telegraph recently in Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire.
He spoke with a twinkle in his eye but with mud on his trousers, the result of which he was dropped on the wrong field by the RAF helicopter that had taken him to the meeting with European defense ministers.
Would NATO membership of Sweden and Finland ensure that such incidents do not occur again? Maybe not, but they will certainly give Putin some reflection.