The United States is increasingly believing in Ukraine’s victory and less and less afraid of Russia
- Grigor Atanesyan
- The Air Force
If at the beginning of the Russian invasion the United States and its allies set the goal of preserving Ukraine as a state, now they say they believe in its victory and win it.
Moscow’s protests, threats and allusions to nuclear weapons have failed – Kyiv’s partners are increasing arms supplies. And once they provided only defensive weapons, now even Germany is wary if it promises to hand over tanks to Ukraine.
US officials have openly described how they are helping the Ukrainian army against constant Russian aggression. This applies to official statements of the Pentagon, and even more – information that they say is not recorded.
Western experts interviewed by the BBC say that the United States and its allies have begun to partially threaten Russia’s threats – they want to continue to avoid a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
“Russia’s war with Ukraine, the confrontation between the West and Russia”
On Thursday, the NBC channel to consider with reference to high-ranking officials that American intelligence helped the Armed Forces to line up the cruiser “Moscow”. And on Wednesday The New York Times wrotethat the United States shares intelligence that helps Ukrainian forces kill Russian generals in command of the invasion.
After a visit to Kyiv by Lloyd Austin and Anthony Blinken, US defense and foreign ministers, US officials said Ukraine could win the war.
About the desire of the United States to see a strong and independent Ukraine that fully controls its entire territory, Mark Millie’s requestChairman of the Committee of Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Trass also promised Kyiv support in the complete liberation of all occupied territories.
The rhetoric of NATO leaders has indeed changed, as Sir Richard Barrons, the former head of the British Armed Forces, told the Air Force.
“It is taking place between increasing support for Ukraine, but it is based on iron – that it will not turn into a war between Russia and NATO,” said the retired general. “This is a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a confrontation between the West and Russia.”
On the eve of the war, the leaders of the United States and Britain warned Moscow that invading Ukraine was costly. They mean that the West is ready to impose the toughest sanctions and provide the Ukrainian army with a limited set of defense weapons, which makes it difficult to advance Russian forces.
Serichard calls this approach a failure: he believes the country did not attack to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine.
However, after the Russian offensive on Kyiv stalled, NATO’s position began to change.
“We saw the failure of the Russian army, and it created an opportunity for ambitious goals,” Barrons said.
If the main weapons previously sent to Ukraine were anti-tank guns and portable air defense equipment, the new supplies from NATO countries have strike drones, artillery and armored vehicles.
In Washington, there is confidence that Ukraine is able not only to defend itself, but also to win, said in an interview with the BBC Michael Mazarr, a senior researcher at the American corporation RAND.
“This is the trajectory of the war itself: when the Russian offensive on Kyiv failed and Russia launched an operation in the south and east of the country with troops that had already suffered heavy losses, the context changed,” Mazarr said.
However, the new, more active approach of the United States had another reason – outrage at the atrocities of the Russian army.
Evidence of war crimes in Bucha and Mariupol has provoked strong reactions in the United States, said Washington Post Air Force columnist David Ignatius, who often uses information from intelligence sources in his columns.
“Both citizens and Republicans have outraged the Russian invasion, and Biden’s administration has given him a democratic opportunity to vote in Congress for an unprecedented $ 33 billion aid package,” said Ignatius, who recently added to Russia’s sanctions list.
If approved, the total amount of military aid Ukraine has received from the United States since the invasion will be $ 46.6 billion. That’s more than two-thirds Russia’s defense budget for 2021.
Few doubt the congressional approval: representatives of both parties have already spoken out in support. 73% of Americans to support arms supply to Ukraine, according to a recent Reuters / Ipsos poll.
But the need to revise previous approaches is also dictated by a new phase of the war: the battle for Donbas has created a need for heavy weapons, especially artillery, says Barrons.
“Rather rhetorical threats”
Russia’s Nuclear Federation sent the United States official notes of protest against Ukraine’s arms supplies, and Putin twice hinted at the use of weapons during the war. His ministers warned that Russian forces were destroying NATO military cargo in Ukraine.
These threats have not stopped the United States and its allies – NATO is not increasing supplies. British Foreign Secretary Liz Trass has rejected the arguments of those who suggest not supplying heavy weapons so as not to provoke Russia.
“In my opinion, inaction is the worst provocation. Now is the time for courage, not caution,” said Trass.
The West was less and less beaten by the Russian army, it was much less capable than it seemed, says Barrons, a retired British general.
The Russian army is weakened, and an important part of it is involved in Ukraine – Moscow does not have enough military force to attack NATO now.
Ignaus from the Washington Post suggests that after the first stage of the examination in Washington came the wars of Russia, one should not expect too seriously, because they were not supported by action.
“Russia’s resources are at the limit, and its troops will be in real danger if it goes to conflict,” Ignatius said. He says US forces in Europe are enough to support Ukraine without worrying about possible escalation from Russia.
In mid-April, CIA Director William Burns warned of another danger – the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in particular, spoke in favor of such a scenario. Tactical is called a smaller destructive nuclear weapon designed for use on the battlefield.
The head of the CIA, however, stressed that US intelligence has no data on the deployment or transfer of weapons, which indicated Russia’s preparation for a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
“Yes, Russia has 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads, ten times more than the United States. But the likelihood of using it from Ukraine, and especially outside Ukraine, is small, so it’s obviously obviously no more in Russia,” Barrons said.
According to him, such a strike does not change the course of the conflict, but it will be the first use of nuclear weapons since the end of World War II and shocks the whole world: ” whole generations “.
In addition, such a step will only strengthen NATO’s cohesion, the expert said. He therefore suggests that Western leaders have assessed these risks and drawn conclusions about the reality of the threats.
Ignatius agrees with this assessment – he believes that Russia’s threats are formulated very vaguely, and tactical nuclear weapons alone are unlikely to change the course of the war, so its use by Russia does not make any practical sense.
“These are rhetorical rather than real threats,” says Ignatius.
However, this does not mean that the United States and NATO ignore the risks of escalation.
Despite the appeal of the President of Ukraine Zelensky, the Biden administration did not respond to the call to “close the skies over Ukraine” – that is, to introduce a no-fly zone. The move would be a step towards NATO’s disappearance with Russia, experts say.
“The United States still says very clearly that it does not plan to take an active part in the war. The United States is not an army in Ukraine,” said Mazarr of RAND.
The expert described how the Soviet Union supplied weapons to North Vietnam during the Vietnam War, which were used to fight the US military – and to kill American soldiers. Russian experts also point to the supply of American weapons to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, who used them against the Soviet army.
“I think the current one can be called unprecedented, although the United States does provide significant military assistance to Ukraine,” Mazarr said.