Sweden, Finland collect NATO insurance when the application decision is pending – POLITICO
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STOCKHOLM – Sweden and Finland’s NATO debate went on tour this week, with officials performing a carefully choreographed diplomatic dance ahead of a potential joint bid in the coming days to join the military alliance.
On Tuesday, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and her Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin met German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz in Berlin, while Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde was sent to the United States and Canada.
At each meeting, the leaders promised their support for Finland and Sweden, and for the countries’ NATO candidacy. In Washington, Linde said she had received even more assurances after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Yes, she said, the United States would support a Swedish and Finnish NATO application, and yes, she added, the United States would provide the military support Sweden may need to avert Russian aggression during what could be a month-long application process.
“I feel very confident that we now have an American commitment,” Linde said told report.
Such assurances, although vague, echoed throughout the NATO alliance during the week. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised the alliance could station more troops in and around Sweden if desired. And the British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace, visiting Finland, claimed it was “unthinkable” that his country would not support Finland or Sweden “if they were ever attacked.”
It was all a sign of how fast Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine is upgrading years of Europe’s entrenched military policy. Many countries are increasing defense spending and strengthening existing alliances, while in Sweden and Finland – two of Europe’s decades-long NATO stops – emotions have rapidly shifted towards joining the military alliance.
Now the two countries’ NATO roadshow will return home. Both Sweden and Finland are expected to announce their decisions on NATO membership within about 10 days, and political debates and statements on the issue are scheduled for almost every day next week.
Compressed timetable
The NATO debate will especially dominate Swedish politics in the coming days, as the ruling Social Democrats try to end a consultation process with their local party groups.
Digital meetings with local members are scheduled for Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, while a number of senior party figures, including Foreign Minister Linde and her predecessor Margot Wallström, will give speeches.
An inter-political report on defense policy – including a discussion on NATO membership – is also expected on Friday and a meeting of the Social Democratic Party leadership is scheduled for May 15, during which the party may make a final decision on NATO membership.
That meeting was previously scheduled for May 24 and the new date is seen as a way to bring Sweden’s timetable in line with Finland’s, where President Sauli Niinistö will announce his view of NATO on Thursday. The Navy’s ruling Social Democrats will announce their own position on 14 May.
Three days later, Niinistö pays a state visit to Sweden.
The consensus among political observers is that the two are likely to prepare to apply together. This week’s shuttle diplomacy, which also included the Finnish Navy Meeting Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto Call with its Turkish counterpart, was widely seen as part of these preparations.
The latest opinion Vote in Sweden shows that 48 percent of Swedes support an application to join NATO against 25 percent. Around 60 percent of Finns want to join.
Careful shift
In recent days, two high-profile Swedish Social Democratic ministers, Ardalan Shekarabi and Lena Hallengren, sa they “lean” towards supporting an application to join NATO. But their party colleagues have for the most part been silent on the subject.
Experts say the silence is partly driven by a desire to limit Russia’s ability to initiate a response to a NATO bid. Moscow has previously said it would move weapons – including nuclear weapons – closer to Finland and Sweden if it joined NATO.
In its latest attempt to discredit Sweden, Russian authorities have this week Stand out posters in Moscow that stamp many Swedish luminaires, including the author Astrid Lindgren and IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad, as Nazis.
Following her meeting with Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly late on Thursday, Sweden’s Linde said she expected Russia to try “what they can” to deter Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, including potential cyberattacks and airstrikes.
She said that “visible” support from NATO partners during a possible application process would be crucial.
Joly, who said that she had also spoken to Finnish Foreign Minister Haavisto earlier this week, said that the decision on possible accession to NATO should and will be up to the Finns and Swedes themselves. But if they decide to apply, she stressed, they would have the support of Canada.
“We believe that Sweden’s and Finland’s contribution to NATO would really be a plus,” said Joly.