– Can not guarantee that it will be so hot
It can get very hot in Oslo on May 17 and the days after. But the heat wave is reserved for a small area around the capital, we must believe Storm’s long-term forecast.
There is hardly any other question the country’s meteorologist gets more often: How will it be May 17? 11 days before the national day, the weather service Storm is out with the first warning: 23 degrees in Oslo. 30 degrees the next day. Can it be true?
– No, I can probably not guarantee that it will be so hot, says meteorologist on duty at Storm Geo, Beate Tveit.
But it’s probably going to get hot. A high-pressure ridge is expected inland around 17 May, and it will have an effect in southern Norway, primarily in the eastern mountains.
– There is a great chance that it can be quite good around those days there, says Tveit.
The forecast is confirmed by meteorologist on duty Rannveig Oftedal Eikill at the Meteorological Institute.
– It looks promising. The uncertainty is related to how far north the high pressure will extend.
10 classes difference between Oslo and Ski?
However, Storm’s long-term forecasts reveal some very local differences. While it is 30 degrees in Oslo on May 18 and 27 degrees the next day, people in Ski – about 22 kilometers away – can only expect 20 degrees.
– This sounds a little strange, Beate Tveit must admit.
– Although such long-term forecasts are highly uncertain, I can not immediately explain the different ones.
– The most probable scenario is good in the whole of southern Norway, and it can quickly become 20-25 degrees in eastern Norway.
– Does the rain stay away from Western Norway as well?
– Probably, but there will be a low pressure. It probably hits the country further north, but it’s a bit uncertain.
Turns up expectations for the May 17 weather
This year’s 17 May will be the first «normal» national day since 2019, and if the forecasts turn out to be pleasant weather and sun in southern Norway. Further north it can get cold and wet.
– In southern Norway, there is a high probability of high pressure in the days around 17 May. Further north it gets wetter and colder.
– You raise the expectations of people in the south?
– Yes, we do. It looks like it’s going to be dry and nice.
Still dry – little precipitation awaits
Colleague Rannveig Oftedal Eikill does not think the meteorologists run any great risk by warning of fine weather in southern Norway on National Day.
– It will be warmer than it is now, and that means that it can be 20-25 degrees. In northern Norway, on the other hand, it is much colder. There they can become sleet and snow showers in some places.
– But it’s dry now. It is expected in Eastern Norway. When will it arrive?
– There may be a few drops in the next few days, but far from enough to make any difference.