The end of Nordic neutrality
Throughout the Cold War, ‘non-aligned in peace, neutral in wartime’ was not just Sweden’s security teach, but also contributed to shaping the Swedes’ national identity and self-understanding. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could soon undermine the country’s traditional non-aligned stance, by likely forcing both countries to apply for NATO membership.
As recently as March 8, two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin began his war against Ukraine, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson was in the Social Democrats. sa to apply to join NATO in the current situation […] would further destabilize this area of Europe and increase tensions’. Many center-right commentators immediately accused her accept Putin’s view that a sovereign state’s choice to join NATO can be seen as a provocation against Russia.
But strong signals from within The Social Democrats are now pointing out that Sweden may apply for NATO membership already at the alliance’s summit in Madrid in June. The country’s security attitude has already changed radically. The government has sent weapons to Ukraine and the Swedish public has started googling about bomb protection and iodine tablets.
NATO-friendly development in neighboring Finland also affects Sweden’s security debate. Finland’s vulnerability to the Soviet Union and then Russia has long been an important reason for Swedish freedom of alliance, as decision-makers assumed that Finland would fall under the Kremlin’s control if Sweden joined NATO. In recent years, Sweden has invested heavily in security cooperation with Finland.
When Andersson met Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Stockholm in April, they were the two leaders stressed that although each country will make an independent decision on NATO membership, they will do so in close dialogue with each other. Marin promised a Finnish decision within a few weeks, while the Swedish Parliament will publish one Report this month present their position on the country’s membership. No one should be surprised if the two Nordic states act in parallel.
For Sweden, freedom of alliance and neutrality are not just established virtues; There is also a feeling that this policy served the country well during the wars of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Of course, reality did not always agree with the rhetoric. During World War II, Sweden was not really neutral but did significant things concessions to Nazi Germany. Shortly after the war, the Kremlin’s demands were accepted through – among other shameful acts of concession –extradition of soldiers from the Baltic states to the Soviet Union.
During the Cold War, however, Sweden maintained onehidden alliance‘with NATO through extensive secret cooperation. This policy stood in stark contrast to the official rhetoric, which portrayed the country as occupying a central position between two equally reprehensible powers – the Soviet Union and the United States. Under Olof Palme, who led the Social Democrats from 1969 until the assassination in 1986 and twice as prime minister, NATO was dismissed as a threatening ‘nuclear alliance‘. But at the same time in public anti-AmericanPalme emphasized privately that cooperation with NATO must continue.
Palme’s official security doctrine gained a kind of sacred status in Sweden at his death, and his spirit has long influenced the country’s foreign service. In the 2010 election campaign, the Social Democrats played on the old threat of the ‘nuclear power alliance’, required that “the United States is dismantling its nuclear weapons and military bases outside its borders.”
But in practice, Sweden has abandoned neutrality and taken increasing steps away from freedom of alliance. As a member of the European Union since 1995, the country has close political and economic relations with other Member States. Since 2009, it is bound by the EU solidarity clausewhich obliges its members to assist other EU countries – although not necessarily by military means – in the event of an armed attack.
Sweden has also gradually deepened its cooperation with NATO, and is now (like Finland) a so-called Enhanced Opportunity Partner. It is part of the Partnership for Peace, has contributed troops to international operations under the NATO flag and participates in the Alliance’s military exercises. The most important thing is that Swedish defense planning to a large extent relies on the country receiving outside help in the event of war.
Sweden’s Cold War neutrality policy required strong defense forces, and military spending of up to 4% of GDP. The country maintained the world fourth largest air force and had the ability to mobilize almost the entire male population of its military age within a few days. Although Sweden has maintained its lead in military technology since the end of the Cold War, the de facto abolition of conscription and the shift of the military’s focus to foreign missions have weakened its defense capabilities. Conscription has recently been revivedand the Home Guard was flooded with applications after the Russian invasion.
But Sweden’s defense spending currently amounts to only 1.3% of GDP. In 2013, the then Supreme Military Commander Sverker Göranson, publicly recognized that Sweden could withstand an attack for about a week. Then we must get help from other countries. ‘ Only after the Ukraine War began did Andersson do inform that Swedish defense spending would increase to 2% of GDP.
While Sweden’s defense plans rely heavily on aid from others, the country does not benefit from the collective security guarantee registered in Article 5 in the North Atlantic Treaty. And Russian aggression only seems to stop at the borders of full-fledged NATO members, not allies such as Ukraine and Georgia.
The Swedish public thinks that the partnership with NATO is no longer good enough. When asked on January 1 whether Sweden should apply for NATO membership, 34% of Swedes agreed and 37% did not agree. In mid-April, 47% were in favor and only 28% were against. And 59% thought that Sweden should join NATO if Finland does, with only 17% against. In early May, a opinion poll showed for the first time a majority (51%) in favor of NATO membership. Given this change in public sentiment, we can expect Sweden to end its charade of neutrality and freedom of alliance once and for all.