Sweden Plugin EV share of 48.2%, Kia Niro at the top
Sweden saw plug-in electric vehicles take a 48.2% market share in April, up from 43.1% compared with the previous year. The total volume of the car market, at 21,942 units, was unchanged compared with the previous year, although the volume in 2022 YTD is still down 19% from last year. Sweden’s best-selling car was the Kia Niro.
Market share trends
April’s combined plug-in result of 48.2% consisted of 24.7% full battery electricity (BEV) and 23.4% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). This is an increase on an annual basis from 22.2% and 20.8%, respectively. This continues the steady weighting in place since April 2021.
Remember that in April 2021, Sweden’s BEV locks were opened, and sales of PHEV and incineration alone fell sharply, after new rules for emissions of carrot sticks began. This explains both April 2022’s relatively modest growth of plug-in shares on an annual basis (from a baseline with an abnormal increase), and why the total auto volume is unchanged year on year (from a squeezed total market baseline). In general, the volume of the car market has decreased by 19% so far this year, and is likely to return to that trend after the abnormal April.
Plugless hybrids, which received 11.5%, increased their relative share by more than a quarter compared to the same quarter last year, diesels decreased by a fraction and petrol fell to 25.4% from 32.5% compared to the previous year. Plugins will be back close to 60% share in June or September, with other powertrains once again experiencing pressure.
Bestsellers
Kia Niro was again the market leader in April, ahead of home-grown brands, Polestar and Volvo.
It’s good to see Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 both on the podium in their home country.
If you take a step back to the next quarter to see the normalized image, while the Niro is still leading, the Tesla Model Y is ahead of local brands, and the Model 3 snaps:
Compared with the subsequent quarterly ranking at the end of Januarywhat are the remarkable changes?
- VW ID.4 has dropped from the top position down to 3rd, which means that Niro and Y each step up a ranking
- The Volvo XC40 has climbed from 12th to 5th place, a fantastic result
- The BMW i3 has climbed from 14th to 8th place, impressive for an older model
- The Audi Q4 e-tron has climbed from 20th to 10th place, one ahead of Skoda Enyaq (stable)
- MG ZS has climbed from 28th to 12th place
- Renault Zoe has lost from 5th to 23rd place
- Ioniq 5 has lost from 9th to 29th place
Keep in mind that many of the ranking changes are more due to supply volume changes, some of which are simply adjustments to priority allocation markets, rather than necessarily requiring change.
I wonder if the refreshed Kia Niro, which comes this summer – with fractions of battery improvements, charging, range and a sharper design, but similar pricing – will stick to the top spot. Some thoughts? Only the charging speed (80 kW peak, 41 minutes to 80%) looks a bit outdated, but still not so bad in an efficient vehicle. Until something comes along that has both better specifications and is cheaper – and with 7 year warranty – (do not hold your breath), my bet is that it will remain in pole position (provided the supply volume is there).
Fleet Transition Update
We only have very basic fleet data from CAR Swedenand updates are released only annually.
At the beginning of 2022, plugins (mostly PHEVs due to history) had a 6% share of the fleet. A 50% plug-in share of new sales would correspond to approximately 2.75% of the fleet’s turnover and 100% would correspond to approximately 5.5%, all other things being equal. This can be increased to 6% or higher if the retirement of old ICE vehicles is accelerated.
Regardless, Sweden’s fleet should pass the 50% plug-in share in 2030 or 2031, and the demand for road fuel at that stage should be below 30% of the standards before the transition.
Sweden’s naval transition lags significantly behind Norway, for some reasons. Norway has already had many years of plug-in sales over 10%, and has steadily accumulated fleet volume. Like most other European markets, Sweden’s significant plug-in assumption (climbed over 10% of new sales) has only come in the last 2 years, from “almost nothing” before, so the fleet’s share has much more to do.
Another factor is Norway’s usual import of easy – to – use plugins from nearby markets (including many from Sweden!) These influences will subside in the coming years, but as a rule of thumb we should expect that Sweden’s fleet transition is 3 to 4 years behind Norway’s . The only good thing is that Sweden’s average vehicle age is about 7% younger than Norway’s, which means that the turnover rate for the background fleet should be a little faster, everything else being equal.
Sight
CAR Sweden currently predicts about 300,000 sales of passenger cars this year, similar to the last two years. However, this could shrink if the political and economic situation in Europe does not improve.
With high fuel prices, but these people which can Buying new vehicles will look at plugins more than ever before. Regardless of what happens to the total auto volume, the plugin share will therefore continue to increase this year, and we should expect that over 70% will be affected during the last quarter.
What are your thoughts on Sweden’s car market? Join the discussion in the comments section below.
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