“There are only two scenarios and one of them is very bad.” Opinion on how the war in Ukraine
On the morning of February 24, 2022, Belarus and each of its citizens woke up in a new reality for themselves. After 2 months, the signs of this reality are still not striking to the average layman, they are barely noticeable on store shelves and do not dominate conversations in the kitchen of Belarusians. State propaganda covers up the traces of exceptional cases, the committed tariff of Russia and a strict contradiction with Ukraine, and confidentiality hides the price it has for our country. Regardless of their visual appeal. Why is “not our war”, as the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the apolitical conflict in Belarus is often described, in fact, the main outcome that largely determines the future of our country? Analyst Pavel Slyunkin reflects.
The campaign against Ukraine is not just a local conflict of Russia’s foreign policy review or the Kremlin’s “disassembly” with its own ideological manifestations. Refusing to order a full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin is implementing the inevitable consequences that such a military adventure entails. Even if at the planning stage in Moscow there was an underestimation of the ability to self-defense and skepticism about the readiness of the Western country to give an adequate economic response, then two or three weeks after the aggression, such illusions should definitely have been dispelled. An easy walk for the “second strongest army in the world” did not work out, the Russian economy risks facing technical isolation from Western capital and losing its premium markets. But all this did not change Putin’s long-term decision, he continues to walk along the gap, not looking back either at sensitive losses at the front, or at the systematic dismantling of the economic model of Russia, succumbing to the decision.
For Vladimir Putin, the war with Ukraine is a decisive battle for obtaining a political legacy, the culmination of an era of its possession. The era that passed under the slogan of the restoration of the former imperial greatness, rivalry with the “spiritual West” and the endless search for special ways for Russia. Having unleashed a bloody war in Europe, Putin is not so much concerned with the expansion of the territory of his decrepit empire at the expense of Ukrainian lands, as he is trying to reformat the entire system of international relations, the world order as a whole. The Russian leadership considers it a fundamentally unfair option and does not consider, remaining within its framework, able to achieve its complex goals, therefore it refuses to obey generally accepted rules. Probably, such a difficult task is realizable – a big and controversial issue, as well as the achievements that she will go to the Russian government for the sake of her readiness. Historical practice on this issue is as categorical as it is merciless – the new world order has always been a crude world war.
But even if Moscow is not ready to put “all inclusive” and unleash the Third World War, the funnel of already formed political and economic consequences, it will still drag seriousness deeper and deeper to the bottom, and for Belarus it risks being fatal. We have become witnesses and at the same time participants in the global economic experiment. Such a wide range of participants that would be united and redistributed along trade flows, including the conditions for the operation of business, and even held accountable for such a large state in every sense, has not yet been in modern history. It is important to remember that, as in any scientific experiment, its results can be very different from the results. And if in the political sphere Belarus has at least a theoretical space for maneuver, then in the economic options there simply is not left.
Russia is one of the system-forming elements of the economy built by Lukashenka, which has influenced the increase in all recent years. The trend towards the de-sovereignization of Belarus, which was taken by the structures in 2020, has only intensified after complicity in the aggression against Ukraine, and the opportunity to get off this dangerous rut Costs depend on every day.
Despite the radical changes around Belarus, the trajectory of attacks within the system remains unchanged. The country is also dominated by repression. Expectations and hopes that in order to unfreeze relations with the West, Lukashenka will limit or consume them, have not justified themselves. Regional instability, acts of disobedience on the railway, anti-war sentiments of Belarusians, fears of negative economic effects and deterioration of the social situation due to the situation suggest to Lukashenka that now is not the time for soft politics, not the time to take risks. In his logic of detention, a military style of management is required, and as a result of the machine gun, Lukashenka is much better acquainted than with the art of diplomacy.
All of the above brings us to a logical, but previously non-obvious conclusion. The prospect of democratic change in Belarus without internal political changes, weakening or destabilization of Russia now seems absolutely unattainable. Two years ago, all alternative candidates in the presidential elections hoped that Putin would be ready to accept some form of transit of power in Belarus beyond his control, despite the fact that this transit would pursue the interests of Moscow. The war against Ukraine clearly demonstrated that such a scenario is (more) impossible in modern Russia. The future of Belarus is now Decision in the battles near Rubizhne, Kherson and Kharkov. And there is no “neutrality” and “not defined”. There are only two scenarios. One of the very bad ones.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.