Valery Tsepkalo: The war in Ukraine is approaching the victory of the democratic forces in Belarus | Belarus: view from Europe – DW special project | DV
The Belarusian opposition is preparing a meeting in Warsaw: on May 16-17, the Forum of Democratic Forces of Belarus will be held there, Valery Tsepkalo, a contender for the presidency in 2020, said in an interview with DW. He also explained what demands are required, whether there is discord in the ranks of the opposition, why Lukashenko looks like Zhirinovsky, and how his attitude towards Putin has changed.
DW: The war in Ukraine – is it getting close to winning the democratic movement in Belarus?
Valery Tsepkalo: It seems to me that any extraordinary event brings the conquest of the democratic movement closer. The reason that the worst thing for any changes in society is when there is a swamp situation. When, in principle, it is not clear in which direction social development is, no irritants move. And when such irritating factors arise, then society sets in motion. Society begins to look for possible ways of change. Therefore, what is happening in Ukraine today will have an impact. Including in Belarus. And to Russia too.
– How do Ukrainians ever think to forgive Belarusians for what is happening?
– By and large, Belarusians are not to blame for anything. The difference between what exists in Belarus and what exists in Russia is quite large. The difference is that there is still a legitimate regime in Russia. The Belarusian people did not vote for Lukashenka, this is obvious to everyone. He remained in power only thanks to lies, thanks to deceit, thanks to repressions, thanks to the murder of people, thanks to violence. In Russia, the time of truth will come in 2024, when it will become clear how strong the support for this regime is.
– But speaking for the Belarusians, how much is the support for military operations minimal or large, in your opinion?
– Of course, Belarusians oppose military operations in Ukraine. And there is no need to conduct any sociological research here, especially since no sociological research in production will give a real picture, if only because sociology as a science of living cannot be in a total society. Any public opinion poll is, first of all, a political order.
– Now it so happened that the Belarusians were representatives who recently fought for democracy in Europe. And suddenly they became outcasts, a decision was made against them. Ordinary people also come back. How, in your opinion, has the attitude of Europeans towards Belarusians changed?
– Of course, we raise this issue at all manifestations, at a meeting with the head of the Bundestag. Today we met with the leaders of the factions of the German Parliament. One of the main ones, who asked questions about how to separate the court, which are imposed on the selection regime, which are imposed on people.
The society does not take responsibility for the activities of the authorities. And today it turns out to be a rather interesting situation, when the trial begins on the basis of ordinary Belarusians, they discover a discovery. Sanctions should certainly be directed against those who feed this regime today. This is the oil refining administration, potash waste. Now the regime has actively begun to cut down wood. It is broken into small chips and exported mainly to Scandinavian countries, which use chips as alternative energy sources. These are the three main areas that need to be protected and protected by Belarusians, and not impose sanctions on ordinary people.
– Many now say that there are many analytical structures in the ranks of the Belarusian opposition, is there a discord in the ranks?
– It is not so easy to observe people when they were found in exceptional cases, activists observed in different countries. We understand this. Therefore, on May 16 and 17, we will organize a forum of democratic forces, we invite all leaders of public opinion, politicians, those who have their own conferences.
We must adopt a declaration of income, a tactic of the Belarusian democratic movement. we had common principles. This is the sovereignty of the Belarusian people, their right to elect both the president and the parliament, this is the seizure of mailboxes. The requirement that crimes against humanity, torture be investigated and those who were unambiguously involved in the killings of people be punished.
– Recently, Lukashenka has been called almost Zhirinovsky of Russian politics. His rhetoric on the detention of Putin has changed, if he could previously make some tough statements, now, like some political scientists, this is almost a servility to Putin. Have you noticed that the transformation has taken place?
– Undoubtedly. Because Lukashenka is illegitimate, everyone knows this, the Belarusian people know this. Lukashenko himself knows this. And Putin knows this. And his behavior is dictated by the fact that his being in power predetermines and requires the exclusivity of the Kremlin. That is, he does not have any support within the country, there is not a single public opinion that would support him. There is money that the Kremlin gives him to maintain the power apparatus.
– You had an initiative – 11 million euros for the arrest of Lukashenka. What’s wrong with her now?
– Surprisingly, this initiative was supported most of all by the Russians. And then the Ukrainians supported it. But for Belarusians in Belarus, transferring money to these kinds of initiatives can be quite fraught. In any case, yes, 11 million was not collected. Approximately 500 thousand euros were collected.
– That is, the reward is still waiting for its hero, although not so big?
– Yes, absolutely right.
– You are not saying that Putin supports the position of the Belarusian people, will support the protest, and so on. Has your attitude towards Putin changed now?
– Naturally, his support for Lukashenka led to the fact that we begin to associate Putin with Lukashenka. Well, and the aggression that has begun against Ukraine is generally an unacceptable way of completely international solutions to affairs in the chosen world.
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