rain and thunder or is the heat forced?
March “dressed” itself for winter, April has been very variable, reminiscent of the typical weather of the month of February, and now it remains to try understand how the month of May will behave. The spring months (Mar and April) and predictably May have been more unstable and warmer than the drier and abnormally drier winters that have occurred, essentially due to two: weakening of strong winds that envelop cold air at high latitudes it’s the stratospheric sudden phenomenonin such a way that it was stored during the entire winter in the full circle it was discovered and penetrate into the lower latitudes.
We have also been at the mercy of the evolution of La Niña in the central Pacific, which usually leaves hot and dry weather in mainland Portugal and Spain.however, until now, the one who is “winning the battle” is the rupture of the polar vortex. This behavior of the polar vortex “pushed” more rain to our country, which mitigated and minimized the severe drought in which they are plunged.. Below is the weather forecast for the month of May 2022 in mainland Portugal, with a comparative analysis of the forecast maps of the European Center (ECMWF) and the American (NOAA).
The European model provides mild and little rain
Our model (ECMWF) is predicted to forecast higher than usual in May, dividing the country into three “fringes”. The westernmost, which comprises the coastline between the district of Viana do Castelo and Faro, anticipates thermal values within the normal climatological reference..
There are some more significant and indicative statistical signs of a positive anomaly for a central portion of the territory (temperatures up to 1°C higher than usual). ONE most of the continental territory should register higher than normal thermal values. Finally, for the strip of territory furthest from the sea, i.e. the easternmost and situated inland near the border with Spain, from Bragança to Évora, temperature values up to 1.5 ºC are expected above the usual.
To the Azores are expected temperatures within normal and less rain than usualwhen there is a negative identification. In Madeira, the same scenario not related to temperatures, with oscillation and thermal variability throughout the month. Rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. in the western half of the island and within the usual range in the eastern half.
With regard to the measure maps anticipate less rain than usual from north to south of mainland Portugal. Negative anomalies will generally be between -5 and -20 mm than normal. However, the highlight goes to Minho, the Porto Metropolitan Area and a small portion of the Centro Region (Viseu, Coimbra, Guarda, Castelo Branco and Leiria) where the total rainfall accumulated in May could be up to -30 mm.
This scenario suggests the emergence of a blocking anticyclone or a powerful stationary ridge across southern Europe and the Mediterraneanwith depressions and fronts to circulate in very high latitudes, without discarding punctual undulations of the jet.
The weather for May 2022, according to NOAA
On the other hand, the american model to offer a month of May with the typical weather for the time of year. Not anticipated at temperature and measurement, and therefore likely not to be significant variable weather: more stable and sunny days, alternating with more unstable onesand with afternoon showers gaining prominence, morning cold and central hours of the day calling for the use of short sleeves.
The American model highlights “normal” rainfall and temperature values for May. As a rule, in May It’s already hot in mainland Portugal, during the central hours of the day, with especially highs that regularly exceed 20 ºC, reaching 25 ºC and even 25 ºC and 30 ºC, especially in the regions of Beiras, Alentejo and Algarve. Regarding the rain, there is nothing that suggests an unusual pattern, however, it can be quite rainy, even with the predominance of showers and irregular thunderstorms.