Brussels sees high risk for Portugal’s sustainability in the medium term
A long analysis is included in the 2021 report on sustainability, without which the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission identifies and analyzes the major challenges, in the short, medium and term, and assesses the degree of risk that each State- member faces.
Regarding Portugal, Brussels points out that “the short-term global threats to Portugal are not identified”, according to the early warning indicator by the European Commission (S0), even though the gross funding continues to be large in the short term, anticipating that financing conditions remain “favourable”.
In the meantime, Brussels identifies Portugal as one of the 10 member states of the European Union that presents a “high risk”, mainly due to the large public debt.
“Term sustainability risks considered as the global fair-term indicator”, both average according to term and the fiscal adjustment necessary to bring the public debt-to-term ratio (GDP) to 60% on average (S1 ) ), as well as from a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) perspective, the document points out.
Public debt, after 128% GDP growth by 128%, from 2027 on the baseline, in growth from the current 12032. Sensitivity to possible macro-budgetary shocks also contribute to this assessment”, explains a.
In the long term, the European Commission considers that sustainability risks are considered to be medium, and this assessment is based on a measure in which the determined low risk is defined, and a public adjustment is required by the indicator necessary to stabilize in the long term. term (S2) and risk from a debt sustainability analysis perspective.
Overall, the report published today draws attention to the fact that the EU as a calculation of the growth rate in the (optimistic) government of the Commission, disclosed in the past in European terms that, after that, took place the invasion of Ukraine by Russia , o of course the risks around savings.
“In a scenario of great uncertainty, the economic risks relate, in particular, to more serious and prolonged supply levels, as well as the sharp rise in energy and food prices, which limit growth and food as a level of supply. inflationary”, the report points out.