recession risk for Italy. Visco, “Unlikely”
The impact of the war in Ukraine over Europe under the lens of the Monetary Fund that speaks of “serious economic consequenceshaving struck when the recovery from the pandemic was still incomplete. “ New risks emerge“The most worrying one – says FMI – is a sudden stop of energy flows from Russiathat would cause significant time wasters for many economies“.
For France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy therefore “a very weak or negative quarterly growth in mid-2022“, a setback of the recovery” hidden – notes the Fund – in the annual growth forecasts “which are affected by the rebound of 2021. For Italy expects a GDP of + 2.3% this year, + 1.7% the next and + 1.3% in 2024. But a recession in Italy, for the Governor of the Bank of Italy Visco “it is unlikely”, because the one in Ukraine – he explains – “is a terrible event, but circumscribed and at the moment it does not have the global dimension that the 2009 financial crisis or the pandemic had. “For the next few months – he adds – oil and gas prices will remain high“to then go down in the second half, and more decisively at the end of the year”.
On the other hand, the perspectives of Confindustriawhich talks about the Italian economy in “weakening “in Marchwith the conflict in Ukraine that “amplifies the increases in energy prices and increases scarcity of materials and uncertainty. Adding to the effects of contagions, this reduces GDP in the first quarter of 2022 and casts a shadow over the second: the April trend is compromised. War and pandemic were the themes at the center of the Spring Meetings, in which San Marino participated by videoconference. An event that closed today and that the Finance Secretariat has defined as crucial for the country’s economic planning.