Finland and Sweden are looking at NATO membership in the midst of Russia’s aggression
A renewed sense of patriotism is flourishing in Sweden and Finland in the face of renewed Russian aggression next door.
Neutrality has been a cornerstone of foreign policy for both countries for decades, but the war in Ukraine is changing everything.
“I think it will happen fairly quickly, within a few weeks, not within months,” said Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin.
Helsinki and Stockholm are now expected to renounce their neutral identities and apply for NATO membership in the coming weeks.
The move would mark NATO’s most important expansion plan in almost 20 years.
“We had bet that Russia would be peaceful, and now that it has attacked in such a brutal and massive and unprovoked attack on a peaceful neighbor, who is also non-aligned, it made people think,” says Robert Dalsjö, former senior adviser at the Swedish Ministry of Defense.
The NATO alliance with 30 countries includes the United States, Canada and 28 European countries.
An armed attack on a member is considered an attack on everyone – attractive protection for small countries near Russia.
Finland’s border with Russia is over 800 km long.
“Finland and Sweden want to join NATO for the same reason that Ukraine wants to join NATO,” said Ian Kelly, a former adviser on public affairs at the US embassy to NATO. “They see it as a deterrent to Russian expansionism.”
Public support for joining NATO has increased enormously in both countries since Russia invaded Ukraine.
As a result, Helsinki and Stockholm appear unaffected by Moscow’s growing threats.
Last week, Russia warned that it would deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltics if Sweden and Finland join NATO, but defense analysts say Russia already has nuclear weapons there.
“It seems to me that Russia is grabbing straws right now,” said Dalsjö. “They have their hands full with Ukraine, so I strongly doubt they will come here and kill anyone.”
Still, Dalsjö says that Europe should not underestimate Russia’s response.
“Russia will be dissatisfied with Sweden and Finland joining and it will feel its dissatisfaction,” said Dalsjö.
Sweden and Finland are the only Nordic countries that are not yet members of NATO.
Their addition would significantly improve the Alliance’s ability to defend itself against Russia, especially in the Baltic Sea.
“There will be NATO assets along the entire Baltic coast, and it’s a nightmare for Russian naval planners,” Kelly said.
The two countries have not yet officially announced their intentions. They are likely to do so before NATO’s next major summit in June, where members can sign an accession document. That document must then be approved by the legislators of each Member State. That means two-thirds of the U.S. Senate.
The whole process usually takes years, but in Finland and Sweden it can be shortened to a few months due to their advanced democratic and militaristic standards.
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