what will happen to the dollar in Belarus?
During the period of tax payments in Belarus and Russia, the dollar exchange rate on the BCSE may require a new increase in the tax on pre-crisis pressure (about 2.6 rubles) if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not comply with the lifting of restrictions on the foreign exchange market.
Last week, the dollar on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange turned into a reaction, which turned off the limit limit on the Russian currency market.
This led to the weakening of the Russian ruble against the dollar on the Moscow Exchange, and the Belarusian ruble sharply overturned. As a result, the dollar exchange rate on the BCSE increased by 2.1% over the week to 2.8278 rubles.
At the same time, the National Bank of Belarus held back the growth of the dollar, allowing the weakening of the Russian ruble on the BCSE by 3.5% (to 3.5217 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles). The value of the currency basket in dollars, euros and Russian rubles fell by 0.77%, while the volume of trading offers in currencies increased to 745 million rubles.
Judging by the results of the auction, the supply of foreign currency on the BCSE exceeded the demand for it, which can be explained by the sale of foreign currency by Belarusian exporters in connection with the payment of taxes, which in the past usually – not only for March, but also for the first quarter.
For the same reason, apparently, an excess of ruble liquidity arose in the banking system of Belarus: tax withholding enterprises, including rubles, which receive from the sale of foreign currency.
Banks transfer free (before taxes) funds to the National Bank. At the auction for the placement of funds on deposits with the NBRB, which was held on April 13, applications were received from banks for the placement of 2,025 million rubles, but the National Bank attracted only 1,500 million rubles at a weighted average rate of 9.49% per annum.
The rate turned out to be higher than at a similar auction held on April 6, when it was completed at 8.46% per annum. Proposal for the funds and volume of placement of 1.5 billion rubles.
Since the surplus of rubles in banks is intended for a quick transfer to the budget, it does not require pressure on the ruble exchange rate.
Currently, the problems of the exchange rate in Belarus have faded into the background. On the first – the possible exclusion of the shortage of some goods. Its coverage includes two reasons: the export of goods from Belarus, as well as the consumption of exports of products abroad by foreign countries that reduce their activities in the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation.
For negotiations with export within the framework of border trade, Belarus limited the export of a number of groceries (salt, pasta, cereals) to a value of 1 kg.
To combat the shortage of imported goods, Alexander Lukashenko appoints to limit the cost of duty-free import of parcels to 1,000 euros and their weight to 31 kg (previously it was 22 euros and 10 kg).
At the same time, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission in the same cases increased the duty-free threshold for the importation of goods for personal use by all modes of transport (except air transport) in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia to 1 thousand euros and 31 kg (from 500 euros and 25 kg).
All these measures are negative for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, as they reduce the inflow of foreign currency into the country and stimulate its outflow. In the second half of April, the dynamics of the dollar should determine the period of tax control in Belarus and Russia.
We can expect a slowdown in the growth of the currency, both on the Moscow Exchange and on the BCSE, until the Bank of Russia slows down its ruble and eases the restrictions imposed on foreign exchange transactions, writes select.by.
The results of the week (April 11-15, 2022) on the foreign exchange market of Belarus:
There has been a trend reversal in the market. For four weeks in a row, the Belarusian ruble strengthened against the dollar and the euro, weakening against the Russian ruble. Last week, the dollar and the euro began to rise in price, while the Russian ruble, on the contrary, fell in price. At the same time, the Belarusian ruble returns to the currency basket, but already 3 times weaker than before.
- dollar exchange rate: +0.0581 rub. (+2.10%);
- euro exchange rate: +0.0577 rub. (+1.92%);
- exchange rate of the Russian ruble: -0.1287 rubles. (-3.53%);
- currency basket: -0.77%.