“Unity and strength”: Why Finland and Sweden join NATO | NATO Review
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have sought protection from NATO and are considering a paradigm shift in their respective security policies: abdication of neutrality and military independence.
In January, the Social Democratic Prime Minister Sanna Marin in Helsinki declared that Finland could not be expected to apply for NATO membership during the current term. But Russia’s invasion has exposed the disadvantages of being a non-member.
Although NATO provides some assistance to Kyiv, it has been reluctant to intervene directly or collectively under Article 5. Like Ukraine, Finland is a direct neighbor of Russia and shares a 1,300 km (600 km) border.
Unsurprisingly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the key factor in pushing Sweden and Finland closer to applying for full NATO membership.
Russia’s invasion has dramatically changed the political discourse in Sweden and Finland and also public opinion, says Alistair Shepherd, senior lecturer in European security at Aberystwyth University, to Al Jazeera.
There are indications that both Finland and Sweden are on the way to a genuine historical change of course in their respective security policies. During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland were mainly regarded as neutral states, albeit for different reasons.
“Sweden’s neutrality was much more a part of their national identity, while Finland’s neutrality was more pragmatic and practically imposed on them through the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed between Finland and the Soviet Union in 1948,” Shepherd said.
“Very significant contribution”
Since the end of the Cold War, both have developed an ever closer relationship with NATO, especially after joining its Partnership for Peace (PfP) program in 1994 and the European Union in 1995.
“PfP was designed to offer non-NATO states a way to develop their individual relations with NATO at a pace and to the extent they choose,” Shepherd said.
Despite joining the EU, and even more importantly in terms of defense and military policy, both countries continued to position themselves as military non-aligned. In practice, this meant that while they were no longer politically neutral, they were formally outside any military alliances.
The latter seems to be about to change.
Finland is reportedly inclined to decide on NATO membership within a few weeks. At the same time, Sweden is facing an election in the middle of the year and it has been somewhat more cautious than Finland when it comes to its future.
The government will want to avoid impulsive security policy changes that would throw decades-old dogmas overboard, thereby alienating its core electorate. But since Russia’s invasion, public opinion has changed considerably, making NATO membership for both Sweden and Finland more conceivable than perhaps ever.
“Surveys in Finland found 53 percent for a NATO membership and 41 percent in Sweden. In recent times, it has risen further by over 50 percent now in favor in Sweden [rising to 62 percent if Finland joins]. In Finland, 68 percent are in favor of joining NATO [rising to 77 per cent if the government recommends it]”, said Shepherd.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said after a meeting with her Finnish colleague that the new security situation will be investigated extensively and quickly.
In any case, Sweden and Finland are already firmly integrated into NATO’s structures. Their armies have been cooperating with NATO troops for many years. Finnish and Swedish soldiers participated in the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan and both have worked close to the United States with equipment and training since 2015.
“Both countries are what NATO calls ‘Enhanced Opportunity Partners’. These are partners who make very significant contributions to NATO operations and goals, ”Shepherd noted.
“Russia will not be happy”
Basically, their membership would further strengthen NATO’s presence and security in the Baltic region. Both Sweden and Finland bring advanced and well-trained soldiers to NATO.
“It can create some long-term challenges because having 32 members can slow down or complicate consensus decision-making. It also indicates how far Russia has isolated itself from the rest of the European community,” said Alexander Lanoszka, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo. , to Al Jazeera.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has indicated that all gates are wide open, but NATO has not yet officially considered joining. This is only possible when an application has been submitted.
The timetable depends on two factors in particular. First, the respective governments in Stockholm and Helsinki must ratify the plan.
“All national parliaments will have to ratify their application to join. It seems that the two governments would rather move fast than slow, but these legislative restrictions could put the brakes on,” Lanoszka said.
The second obstacle is NATO membership. However, the major NATO countries have already made it clear that they would welcome the adoption of Finland and Sweden.
Support comes from the US, Germany, France, the UK and Poland. None of the other countries have yet opposed the idea, which is crucial as all 30 members must agree on an application.
“In the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it will probably be approved quickly and membership will be accelerated to show the unity and strength of the alliance in the face of Russian aggression,” Katharine AM Wright, senior lecturer in international politics at Newcastle University, told Al Jazeera.
“If the applications are made, I would therefore expect to be granted membership this year.”
However, the inclusion of the two Scandinavian countries in the alliance is not seen without concern.
Russia will not be happy, which led Secretary-General Stoltenberg to emphasize at every opportunity that it is not NATO that is expanding but that nations have the opportunity to join the alliance.
“Escalate the war considerably”
Moscow said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia must strengthen its defense in the region, including by repositioning nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin has been threatening “consequences” for several years if Finland and Sweden join NATO. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman recently said that Russia “must re-adjust” the balance at the border.
“Russia is trying to influence the decisions of Sweden and Finland, for example by claiming that it will end a nuclear-weapon-free Baltic Sea,” Wright said.
“Nevertheless, as the Lithuanian president has pointed out, Russia has long had nuclear weapons depots in Kaliningrad. If anything, such a stance is likely to strengthen the arguments for NATO membership.”
Former Russian President and current Vice-President of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said via telegram that there should be no more talk about the status of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Baltic Sea and the Baltic Sea, alluding to the Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and the Baltic Sea. Lithuania.
Finnish and Swedish membership of NATO would remove the neutrality and non-aligned status of two countries from Europe and go against the acceptance of a militarized understanding of security as the primary strategy for the West.
But Putin views Finland and Sweden differently from Ukraine because of their different histories.
Ukraine is seen as part of a “Russian world” imagined by Putin. Sweden and Finland are therefore less comparable with Ukraine outside its proximity to Russia.
“Any Russian invasion of Finland or Sweden, even before NATO membership, is unlikely, as it would escalate the war significantly,” Wright said.