Finland, Sweden weigh the pros and cons of NATO membership
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STOCKHOLM – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the border to apply for NATO membership and abandon a belief held for decades that peace was best preserved by not publicly choosing sides.
Finland, which shares 1,300 km (810 km) of border with Russia, and Sweden are now seen as most likely to join NATO, which Russia says would have “serious military and political consequences.”
Here are some of the questions that have led to a radical reconsideration of the policy and what the next step may be towards joining the US-led alliance with 30 countries.
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WHY ARE NOT SWEDEN AND FINLAND MEMBERS OF NATO?
– Both have been non-aligned since World War II despite having small military forces in relation to Russia.
Finland became independent from Russia in 1917 and fought two wars against it during World War II, when it lost some territory to Moscow. Finland signed an agreement on friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance with Russia in 1948, which cemented a certain degree of economic and political dependence and isolated it militarily from Western Europe.
– The end of the Cold War, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, enabled Finland to emerge from Russia’s shadow when the threat from Moscow diminished.
– It has relied on its own military deterrence and friendly relations with Moscow to maintain peace. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special operation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin looks anything but friendly.
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– Sweden has not fought a war in 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.
– It drove down its military after the Cold War, hoping that in the event of a conflict it would be able to delay a Russian advance until help arrived. Putin’s offensive against Ukraine has made a guarantee of aid much more appealing.
– Many on the left in Sweden, however, are still suspicious of the US security agenda and NATO, which ultimately relies on deterrence from the US nuclear arsenal.
– Both Finland and Sweden switched from formal neutrality to military freedom of alliance in 1995 when they joined the European Union.
– Both have come closer to NATO in recent years, exchanged intelligence and participated in alliance exercises, in response to an increasingly belligerent Russia.
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– Joining the alliance would bring Sweden and Finland under the umbrella of Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on a NATO ally is an attack on everyone.
HOW WIDE IS THE SUPPORT FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?
– Surveys show that a narrow majority of Swedes join NATO and there is a majority in parliament for an application.
Sweden’s Social Democrats – the largest party and in power for most of the last century – are seen as the biggest obstacle to applying, even if they review their objections.
– The Swedish Left Party – formerly the Communist Party – is against, as is the Green Party.
– The latest survey, from the private Finnish TV company MTV, showed that 68% of Finns were in favor and only 12% were against NATO membership.
– Media reports indicate that a majority of Finnish legislators and most parties support joining NATO, with the exception of the Left Alliance.
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WHEN CAN THEY JOIN?
– Finland is closer to applying for membership than Sweden.
– It has a NATO alternative, a kind of action plan that requires it to be applied if the security situation deteriorates.
– The Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who leads Finland’s five-party center-left coalition, and President Sauli Niinisto have been touring in various NATO member countries in recent weeks to support a potential application.
– The Finnish government updated its foreign and security policy in a white paper published on Wednesday.
– The document says that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had profoundly changed Finland’s security environment but did not take a position on whether Finland would join NATO or not.
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– The newspaper will now be discussed by parliament, and Marin said that a decision would be made “within weeks, not months.”
Finland’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said on April 7 that the government was prepared to quickly propose NATO membership if there was sufficient parliamentary support.
– NATO will hold a summit in Madrid in June.
– The Swedish government is also reviewing the broad security policy with a report that will come before the end of May. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said that she wants to wait for the results of the review before making any decisions.
– The ruling Social Democrats are holding an internal debate on whether to drop their objection to NATO and are expected to submit a report before the summer. nL5N2W9269]
– Sweden will hold parliamentary elections in September with NATO membership as a central issue. A clear mandate from the electorate would make it easier for a government to apply.
– A decision by Finland to apply before then would, however, put pressure on Stockholm to follow suit.
(Report by Simon Johnson in Stockholm and Anne Kauranen in Helsinki; Edited by Robert Birsel and Mark Heinrich)