Sweden, Ireland are warming up, Antarctic sea ice shows no trend
The statement: There has been no warming in January in Ireland and Sweden since 1988
The global average temperature has risen by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, according to NASA. Other independent, long-term climate data sets confirm it found.
However, some social media users have shared a blog post which claims that some countries defy this trend.
“Ireland, Sweden have not shown any warming in January since 1988. Antarctic sea ice distribution is now more than 40 years stable”, it reads the title of the blog post, divided into one February 16 Facebook posts.
Versions of the blog post – published by a website called “Watts Up With That?” – got hundreds of interactions on Facebook, Twitter and Reddit.
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However, the claim is misleading. This blog post selects both the time frame and the specific month, according to method experts is deficient. Ireland and Sweden have been warming since 1988, counting all the months.
USA TODAY reached out to bloggers and social media users who shared the comment for comment.
Sweden and Ireland have been warming since 1988
While the blog names Japan Meteorological Agency as its source, the data were not originally collected by the Agency, according to Wakamatsu Shunyaa Japan Meteorological Agency science officer.
The blog post links to data published on the agency’s “ClimatView” portal, he said in an email. The portal is filled in by data received via an international messaging system between meteorological authorities.
The Swedish data seem to originate from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, which participates in the messaging system. While the blog analyzed data from five Swedish stations, there is data available from 35 stations dating back to 1988, according to Sverker Hellström, climatologist at the institute.
When data from these stations are analyzed, there has been no statistically significant January warming since 1988, Hellström says to USA TODAY in an email. However, Sweden has been warming since 1988, assuming annual temperatures.
In addition, Swedish data shows a positive warming trend for January since 1985, he said.
– I do not know why they started in 1988 in the blog post, but 1988 was a pretty warm winter after several very cold winters in the mid 80’s, Hellström said. “It’s an old trick to start with a hot year if you want to show the absence of a warming trend.”
Fact check:Short-term global temperature fluctuations do not deny climate science, the total warming
The Irish data in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s portal probably originates from Met Éireann, the Irish meteorological serviceaccording to Sandra Spillanea climatologist at the service.
Like Sweden, Ireland has not warmed up since 1988, when only January is included. But annual temperatures have warmed significantly during the same time frame, Spillane told USA TODAY in an email.
While Sweden and Ireland have not shown significant warming in January since 1988, global January temperatures have warmed by about 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Time Series tool.
“You can almost always find a shorter time or more local records to seemingly contradict the long-term global” trend, Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies previously told USA TODAY. “But they do not.”
Unlike Arctic sea ice, the Antarctic sea ice does not shrink
The blog post also claims that Antarctica’s sea ice has been stable for 40 years. This is quite accurate.
Although the distribution of sea ice in Antarctica – size – has fluctuated since the late 1970s, it has not changed much overall.
“There had been a trend in Antarctica towards increased sea ice cover from the late 1970s to 2014, but with the declines from 2014 to 2017, the record from the late 1970s until now does not show a strong overall trend.” Claire Parkinsonsenior climatologist at NASA, previously told USA TODAY.
Fact check: Misleading data used in claims about a global cooling trend
Several climate data agencies have reported this fact, including NASA, NOAAthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and that National data center for snow and ice.
However, the Antarctic ice sheet has lost significant mass in recent decades, according to NASA. The ice sheet rests primarily on the Antarctic land mass, while sea ice refers to ice that forms over the sea.
Arctic sea ice also decreases rapidly.
Our rating: Lacks context
Based on our research, we rate the MISSING CONTEXT statement that there has been no January warming in Ireland and Sweden since 1988, as without further context it can be misleading. Although the statement itself is correct, it is based on cherry-picked data. There has been a warming in both Ireland and Sweden since 1988 if you count all the months.
Our fact-checking sources:
- Wakamatsu ShunyaMarch 15-24, Email Exchange with USA TODAY
- Sverker Hellström, March 23-April 6, E-mail exchange with USA TODAY
- Sandra SpillaneMarch 22-April 1, Email Exchange with USA TODAY
- Claire ParkinsonJanuary 17-18, email exchange with USA TODAY
- Gavin SchmidtFebruary 22, Email Exchange with USA TODAY
- Ahira Sánchez-LugoMarch 23-25, Email Exchange with USA TODAY
- NASA, available March 23, Ice floe
- NASA, available March 23, Arctic sea ice
- NOAA, 14 August 2020, Climate change: Global sea level
- NASA, April 20, 2020, Ice-Albedo Feedback in the Arctic
- USA TODAY, January 21, Fact check: NASA did not deny the warming or say that polarization has increased since 1979
- Washington Post, January 25, 2021, The earth now loses 1.2 trillion tons of ice every year. And it will get worse
- NOAA, 28 April 2020, Understanding the climate: Antarctic sea ice distribution
- NASA, available March 23, The world of change: Antarctic sea ice
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth evaluation report, available 23 March, Regional Fact Sheet – Polar Regions
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, January 7, How is Antarctic sea ice different from Arctic sea ice?
- Japan Meteorological Agency, available March 23, ClimatView
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, available March 23, Climate
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, available March 23, Swedish Annual average temperature diagram
- Met Éireann, available March 31, Website
- Japan Meteorological Agency, available March 31, Website
- Japan Meteorological Agency, available April 1, Overview of ClimatView
- NOAA Climate at a Glance, available April 5, Global time series
- USA TODAY, March 1, Fact check: Japan Meteorological Agency data shows warming on the Japanese island
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