Could Sweden and Finland join NATO because of Ukraine?
Swedish and Finnish tanks at “Cold Response 2022” military exercises with NATO member countries. / Yves Herman / Reuters
Swedish and Finnish tanks at “Cold Response 2022” military exercises with NATO member countries. / Yves Herman / Reuters
Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic Party, which has so far rejected NATO membership, is reviewing its international security policy in response to Russia’s military action in Ukraine, bringing it closer to joining the Western Alliance than ever before.
Sweden’s largest party has long claimed that military freedom of alliance has served the country well, but an aggressive Russia has forced a concern about NATO membership in both Sweden and neighboring Finland.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position changed fundamentally,” the Social Democrats said in a statement.
Finland is expected to outline its path regarding NATO in the coming weeks, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said on Thursday after a meeting with the Alliance’s foreign ministers in Brussels.
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A High Representative of the US State Department confirmed that both nations would join NATO after the discussions, while another US official said The times that connection can take place already in the summer.
Although Finland’s and Sweden’s combined population of 16 million is already close to the alliance, protection is not currently provided by NATO’s guarantee that an attack on an ally is an attack on all.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that it would be possible to allow Finland and Sweden to enter “fairly quickly”, but all decisions must be approved by all 30 allies.
The Kremlin said on Monday that such a scenario would not bring stability to Europe, having already stated that Russia would need to “rebalance” the decision to increase NATO’s presence near its border with its own military safeguards.
However, Stoltenberg’s claim that “President Putin wants less NATO at Russia’s borders, but he gets more NATO”, may well be the result.
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Alliance-free Sweden is changing pace
Home to the founder of the Nobel Peace Prize, Sweden is one of Europe’s poster countries for freedom of alliance, which has not fought in a war since 1814. But Russia’s actions in Ukraine over the past decade challenge this commitment.
First, it is public opinion. A recent survey indicated that 71 percent of Swedes are worried about an increased military threat from Russia – up from 46 percent in January. Another survey indicated that 59 percent of Swedes wanted to join NATO (but only if Finland does).
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s party The Social Democrats will review the party’s security policy. / Matt Dunham / Pool via Reuters
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s party The Social Democrats will review the party’s security policy. / Matt Dunham / Pool via Reuters
Public opinion has also coincided with a change in policy. After the Cold War, Stockholm spent years comparatively small sums on the defense budget. Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, however, led the Swedish government to increase rearmament and go so far as to reintroduce limited conscription the same year.
This year’s escalation in Ukraine has exacerbated this change. Earlier this month, Stockholm announced plans to double defense spending to about 2 percent of GDP.
One of the major obstacles to membership, however, is that the Social Democrats – regarded as the key to deciding on Sweden’s accession – only confirmed their policy on military freedom of alliance last year.
As for the opposition, four center-right parties support a NATO application from Sweden. The leader of a fifth said that he wanted his party to support accession if Finland also made the move, while the Left and Green Party is against membership.
The Social Democrats’ review should be ready by the summer. However, the party leadership could decide to apply to become a member even without backing the party’s membership “if the need for a different security policy arises during the (review) process”, said the Social Democrats.
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Finland is moving forward
After fighting with the Soviet Union during World War II, Finland has focused its security policy on maintaining a strong defense but friendly relations with Russia. But with a 1,300 km (810 km) border with Russia, it is now considered to be the longest road to NATO membership.
At the end of March, the country’s President Sauli Niinisto asked NATO Secretary General for details on principles and steps to accept new members, while Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said it had discussed a possible membership with “almost all” of NATO’s 30 members, and will present a review to the Riksdag in mid-April.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has “almost daily” talks with his Swedish counterpart about NATO membership. / Lehtikuva / Emmi Korhonen / Reuters
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has “almost daily” talks with his Swedish counterpart about NATO membership. / Lehtikuva / Emmi Korhonen / Reuters
According to Atlantic Council senior fellow Rachel Rizzo, the government has public support: “In the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, support for NATO membership in Finland specifically increased to the majority for the first time, reaching 62 percent in a second poll conducted in mid-October. March. ”
But she said there were still questions about whether Finland would apply for membership without Sweden, and “when it will actually happen, if it will be ready to go in time for the Madrid summit in June.”
Finland’s top diplomat Haavisto said that NATO would of course “wonder if Finland and possibly Sweden will have submitted their applications for membership before then”, the foreign minister said.
He added that the government was prepared to swiftly propose joining NATO if there was sufficient parliamentary support and that he was in “almost daily” conversations with his Swedish counterpart on the subject.
Source (s): Reuters