Why Russia is trying to ring the east of Ukraine
- Paul Kirby
- BBC News
After a series of military defeats, especially around Kyiv, Russia has shifted its focus to eastern Ukraine. The United States may believe that the offensive in Donbass will signal a prolongation of the conflict.
What does Vladimir Putin mean by the “liberation” of Donbass, what does he want to get, and is it possible in principle?
Russian forces have created a humanitarian catastrophe in eastern Ukraine, ruining Mariupol, but they cannot defeat the Ukrainian army. Speaking about the new offensive, President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “We are fighting for every meter of your land.”
Ukraine has deployed its largest trained forces in the east. They are believed to have suffered heavy losses, but still posed a serious threat to the Russian army.
What is Donbas, according to Putin
When President Putin speaks of Donbas, he does not mean the old coal and steel region of Ukraine, but two large eastern regions, Luhansk and Donetsk, stretching from Mariupol in the south to the northern border.
“The Kremlin sees them as a Russian-speaking part of Ukraine that is more like Russia than Ukraine,” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies.
However, these areas, although Russian-speaking, are not pro-Russian.
Last week, Russia said it had taken control of 93% of Luhansk Oblast and 54% of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian troops are trying to see the Ukrainian army in the east. They captured strategic Izy and shelled several cities in the Luhansk region, including Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Popasna, and Severodonetsk, destroying apartment buildings and killing civilians.
The cities that are currently in the field of Russia have been living in a state of war since 2014, and today is not a day without a deadly attack.
Before the onset of Russian forces, Ukrainians deported civilians. Leader Serhiy Haidai agreed that on Thursday 20 children were taken out of the basement of a kindergarten in Lysychanska Street in a safe place, and about 200 civilians were taken from Severodonetsk.
Marina Agafonova, 27, fled her native Lysychansky earlier this week. According to her, the original Russians fired only on the outskirts of the city, but recently struck in the center. “They fired on hospitals and houses. There is no heating or electricity. My parents are still there.”
“Ukrainian fighters are holding the city,” she told the BBC. “They can’t take it from the Russians.”
However, Russia does not plan to stop there. Its next condition will be Sloviansk, a 125,000-strong city that has already survived hostilities in 2014.
Why Putin wants to control Donbas
The Russian leader has repeatedly unjustifiably accused Ukraine of genocide in the east.
In 2014, after three battles, two-thirds of eastern Ukrainian regions remained under Kyiv’s control. The rest were seized by Russian-backed separatists who created self-proclaimed “republics” there.
Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of Ukraine’s separatist regions. The leader of the Luhansk People’s Republic is already talking about preparing a “referendum” on the region’s accession to Russia, although the idea of even a fictitious vote in the war zone seems absurd.
“Terrible” life in separatist Luhansk
In L / DNR, the situation is calm, although the authorities of the “republics” accuse the Ukrainian forces of shelling residential buildings and killing civilians. For example, according to the DNR leader, 72 people have died there since mid-February.
A woman from Luhansk told the BBC on condition of anonymity that she had seen many Russian armored vehicles in the city and that there was now an atmosphere of fear and caution.
“I’m scared, just scared,” she says. Men of conscription age were ordered to join the local police, and those who evade conscription are hiding, she explained.
“They are mobilizing [чоловіків] just on the streets, catch them. There are no men in shops, in cities, on the streets. “That is why all the enterprises where they predominate are not working at the moment, she explained.
“We are already Russia, albeit unofficially. Everyone has Russian passports.”
Will Ukrainian fighters survive?
At the beginning of the war, 10 brigades that were part of Operation Allied Forces were considered the best equipped and best prepared.
“Right now we don’t know how strong the Ukrainian fights are,” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies, as volunteers have joined the ranks in recent weeks.
Russian forces have already suffered heavy losses and have low morale. However, they have seized a large part of the territory in the southeast and are counting control of the area from the Crimea to the border with Russia.
“The main goal of the Ukrainians is to inflict as many losses as possible on the Russians. To avoid major battles, the Ukrainians resort to asymmetric tactics,” said military expert Konrad Muzyka.
A man named Nikita, possibly leaving Mariupol, is confident that the Ukrainian army will be able to repel.
“Someday they will return our city, and the Azov battalion will not surrender Mariupol,” he told the BBC.
“The Ukrainian army is very agile and skillful, I have not seen them in the city, but I heard that they are very well disguised.”