Sweden’s Plugin EV share reaches 56% in March, will accelerate
Sweden’s car market saw plug-in electric vehicles take a 55.6% share in March 2022, a significant increase from 37% on an annual basis. Full electricity alone accounted for almost a third of the market, at 31.8%. Total car volumes were 28,706 units, a decrease of 16.6% from pre-pandemic seasonal standards.
March’s combined plug-in result of 55.6% consisted of 31.8% full-battery electricity (BEVs) and 23.7% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). March’s combined plug-in share was second after the peak listing in December last year (60.7%) and bodes well for 2022. The plug-in share during the final quarter is 53.6%, up from 35.6% on an annual basis. Of that, 28.3% is BEV, up from a very modest 5.7% on an annual basis (just before the incentive structures changed radically from April 2021).
The combined share of combustion alone (petrol and diesel) was close to a record low of 34.2% (from the December record of 32.2%).
Sweden’s favorite BEV
March saw no major surprises, with Tesla reaching its usual delivery peak at the end of the quarter, with Model Y now clearly leading over Model 3. Temporarily shifted from its usual lead, Volkswagen ID.4 and Kia Niro took 3rd and 4th spots in March.
Home-labeled vehicles, the Volvo XC40 and Polestar 2, continued to increase in volume in March, taking 5th and 6th place.
Just outside the top 20, three relative newcomers are worth noting. In 21st place, with 94 units, the Volvo XC40’s lowered, coupe / sedan sibling Volvo C40 (platform and driveline almost identical) dropped a couple of places from last month, but actually increased in monthly volume by 36%, and will soon to be a regular face among the top 20.
In 22nd place, the affordable MG5 wagon delivered its first Swedish vehicles (92 units). The VW Group’s latest market player on the MEB platform, Cupra Born, also started delivering in significant volumes (72 units, in 26th place).
For the last quarter, the long-term favorites Kia Niro and ID.4 still lead, but now the Tesla Model Y has replaced the Tesla Model 3 in third place. Local heroes Volvo XC40 and Polestar 2 fill the top 5. There are no significant surprises in the rest of the table, most of the faces are the same as we have seen in recent months.
Sight
Following a delay in recent months, the Swedish government has now replenished the budget pot to regulate plug-in incentives, which gives buyers confidence that their expenses will be repaid rather than waiting indefinitely.
Industry association Mobility Sweden (formerly BIL Sweden), reports that the existing problems in the EU vehicle supply chain (especially around chips) have been exacerbated by the Ukraine crisis, through interruptions in the component supply chain, interruptions in the raw material supply and energy price shocks. This will put pressure on the available volume in the car market in 2022. General economic inflation, especially around energy, transport and food prices, and subsequent problems with consumers’ budgets, may also put pressure on market sentiment and car demand.
Plugins have the advantage that they allow owners to avoid dramatic price increases on road fuel, which will increase their demand relative to internal combustion vehicles. But plugins supply chains are also suffering from disruptions, and given their premium sticker price, overall economic problems for consumers will affect their demand in absolute terms. They should still take part in the sale of new combustion vehicles, even if the absolute sales volume is not spectacular compared to last year.
Since many of Sweden’s best-selling BEV cars are currently manufactured in Asia (Tesla, Kia, Hyundai, Volvo and Polestar), their supply chains for components, materials and energy may suffer from slightly minor disruptions (even if they are not immune to it).
Unfortunately for Europeans, not every persistent energy price shock (and commodity outages and overall inflation shock) in Europe will help international OEMs locate their production in Europe. Especially not in the car sector and other sectors of heavy industrial production that require large amounts of energy and raw materials, both of which are now much more expensive in the region.
Given the current uncertainties, it is difficult to predict the car market in the coming months. In general, as mentioned above, plugins will benefit more from new vehicle consumers over internal combustion vehicles, which should accelerate their continued growth in share this year, although their absolute growth in volume is more subdued or even flat.
What are your thoughts on Sweden’s car market prospects? Join the conversation in the comments.
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