High dependence forces Portugal to accelerate energy transition
Given the current international instability, Portugal and Europe are faced with a serious problem of energy dependence. Two-thirds of the country’s energy is imported. Can Portugal become an independent country in energy production? JPN spoke with experts about the present and future of energy in the country.
About two thirds (65.8%) of the energy consumed in Portugal comes from abroadaccording to 2020 data. “The energy dependence we have is a fundamental element to be overcome”, says Francisco Ferreira, president of the environmental association ZERO.
For that to happen, experts point out the bet on renewable energies and on innovation in the area, in a strategy combined with a greater energy efficiency. It is a path to autonomy, combating changes for the development of the war, at a time when Ukraine and Russia’s increasing isolation on the issue of dependency to the center of the debate.
The origins of dependency
As a matter of fact, “Portugal has a very limited dependence on Russia in terms of fossil delivery”says João Peças Lopes, professor of Energy Systems at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto (FEUP).
However, this dependence has increased in recent years, with the Russian natural gas imports to reach 10.2% of the total in 2021according to the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) – already Association Zero indicates that this number will be 14.6%. While Russia’s energy dependence is still, Portugal is still “dependent on other countries that are not democracies”pointing out João Pedro Pereira, professor of Energy Finance at the Nova School of Business & Economics (Nova SBE).
Two years ago, the biggest suppliers of Petroleum to Portugal were Brazil, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Angola and Equatorial Guinea, respectively, totaling about 71% of imported oil. Three of these countries – Saudi Arabia, Angola and Equatorial Guinea – have authoritarian regimes, according to the US Democracy Index. Economist Intelligence Unit. In addition, there is Nigeria, where there is an insurgency by the radical Islamic group Boko Haram.
The same problem occurs in the case of natural gas. In 2021, according to DGEG, 49.5% of those were from Nigeria33.2% of U.S5.9% of Spain and 1.3% of Algeriain addition to the aforementioned Russia (10.2%). The extension also depends on economic issues, with João Pedro Pereira mentioning the Chinese State’s participation in electricity transmission and distribution companies – 20.22% in the case of EDP and 25% of REN.
“The price of the most expensive that determines the price of energy, since renewables do not have stricter final prices that have been increasing.” – Francisco Ferreira (Zero)
Immediately, this dependence contributes to the increase of fuel prices, but also of electricity. As Portugal, in addition to being renewable, “it combined with central gas cycle energy and how is the final price of energy, as renewablesdo not have the increase in price characteristics that can become more economical coming to verify ”, explains Francisco Ferreira.
The electricity bill is expected to rise approximately 3% in the regulated market as early as April. As of the 15th, Galp will increase gas prices by three euros and electricity prices by between one and two euros. In the following month, EDP Comercial points to a 3% increase in electricity prices. The mitigation measures announced by the government do not prevent such increases.
After the storm, the calm? An opportunity to accelerate an energy transition
A new window of opportunity for greater independence is now emerging after the pandemic. “I think that we should be now, that there is not a forced eye fund to quickly accelerate the energy transition”says João Pedro Pereira, from Nova SBE.
What is happening now, what is happening now, is an eye-opening fund for us to rapidly accelerate the energy transition
In December of last year, more than 70% of the energy produced in the country came from renewable sources, reinforcing the idea that from thermal autonomy also comes the fight against change. of João Pedro Pereira considered that “despite having our goals”, these are described as insufficient.
that’s how it is act faster “for economic reasons as well as for environmental reasons”, pointing out Francisco Ferreira. In a conversation with the JPN, Professor João Pedro Pereira warns of “the climate issue” [que] it is a disaster that is very close to becoming irreversible.” Currently, the goal is to reach 2030% of nationally sourced electricity by 2030 and renewable carbon neutrality by 220. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is possible to put an end to the rise in temperatures if we eat up to 2 before present 3 years in half of the next years.
It is necessary to accelerate the European Ecological Pact, considering Francisco Ferreira.
The environmentalist has no doubts about the potential of the Portuguese territory: “Fortunately, we in Portugal have a wide variety here: solar, wind, hydro, in the Azores geothermal, biomass can also be used”. In 2021, renewable energy production supplied 58% of electricity consumption. In terms of final energy consumption – corresponding to all economic sectors – this figure stood at 34% in 2020.
Regarding the energy potential of the Sun, annual sun exposure in Portugal varies between two thousand and three thousand hours, one of the highest values in Europe. As for wind energy, production can reach 2,000 megawatts, enough millions of people to supply three. However, it is necessary to take into account the “balance between renewable energy and the affectation of the landscape”, Francisco Ferreira. For the professor at Nova-FCT, you cannot “hole the country or carpet with solar panels”having deviated.
What does Portugal need to do to eliminate dependence?
Regarding the selected potential, it is still underused. Nova SBE professor João Pedro Pereira considers that “there is still a lot to do”. One of the problems that arises at the level of electrification of the energy system, corresponds to two thirds of carbon alternatives.
AN electrification is thus defined as the main objective of the Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality 2050. For Professor João Pedro Pereira, there are several areas in which greater commitment is needed, particularly in transport, which “are far behind in terms of electrification”. Francisco Ferreira, on the other hand, points out the lack of “an electricity network prepared to connect many more series of solar plants than those planned”.
More than having a lamp that saves a lot, I need to use a lamp if I don’t need it.
Pedro Pereira also recommends “advancing more quickly to electricity consumption tariffs that are dependent on the wholesale market price in real time”. This measure would encourage the “efficiency of electricity consumption”, which Francisco Ferreira, from FCT-Nova, outlines as “the most important path”. For the responsible ZERO, “more than having a lamp that saves a lot, I need to turn off the lamp if I don’t need it”.
Another point where charging is needed is needed for other electric cars, for which “you either have to charge them or you can’t charge them”. For João Pedro Pereira, from Nova SBE, it is still necessary to electrify the “water heating” and the “heating of houses with heat pumps”. Already João Peças Lo, from FEUP, proposal to “go to natural gas” in the industry as an alternative to natural gasI.
The Now and After the Transition
In the short-, both the FEUP professor and appeal to Nova SBE solutions appeal to Nova SBE solutions diversification of energy sources. “In the short term, it is not possible to convert the economy to another form of energy”, warns Pedro Pereira.
Peças Lopes advocates that “buy more gas from the United States, more gas from Qatar, North Africa, South America and, for example, Mozambique, which has an exploration of nascent natural gas”. On the contrary, Francisco Ferreira said that “building infrastructure for fossil fuels” from other countries is a waste of money”. He therefore advocates more “investments in our energy independence, that is, energy efficiency and renewables”.
But what can a long-term energy transition mean? In addition to helping to mitigate the effects of economic changes, there is also the potential for development and leadership in the field of renewable energy. João Peças Lopes recalls that “Portugal can develop industrial clusters associated with this energy transition”.
The professor who believes that, in this way, the country will be able to “to develop an export capacity, knowledge and technology” leading to further economic development. João Pedro Pereira refers to the positive consequences for the economy, which would also benefit from the strengthening of the “Portuguese academic, innovative and business fabric”. “There is no reason for innovation not to be done here”says the professor at Nova SBE.
Promoting change is complicated when we already have interests in place and profits that are programmed
Without end, “promoting change is always complicated when we already have established interests and profits that are programmed”, sighs Francisco Ferreira. Of moderate optimism, the hope is that the energy transition accelerated. Only in this way will it be possible for Portugal to become energetically autonomous, while advancing in the protection of the environment.
Article edited by Filipa Silva