Putin Ukraine – How Russia’s war can affect Japan – Latest news / NV
At the beginning of the war, Putin announced that he had put our country’s nuclear forces on high alert. This statement for most of the planet, but too alarmed Japan
Across Europe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to an almost complete rethinking of the concept of security from defense to energy. Much attention has been paid to the potential impact of the war on security in East Asia, especially in Taiwan and Japan. However, the future transformation may be just as profound.
The war in Ukraine is far away, but poses a significant risk to East Asia. China is closely watching the conflict and the reaction of the West. If Russia pays a high price for its actions, then sanctions (also introduced by Japan) has lasted long enough for its economy to recover, and China is unlikely to take military action against Taiwan, at least until it provides reliable protection for its economy.
However, if Russia satisfies its desire to establish a puppet government in Kyiv and ensure a quick adjustment of Western sanctions, China may choose to step up its pressure on Taiwan for the first year, even invading it. If that happens, Japan could be embroiled in conflict, leaving its own island of Senkaku, which has claimed China since the 1970s, less than 140 miles from Taiwan.
Yakwanind, former Prime Minister Shizo Abe in December last year, “the emergency in Thailand is an emergency in Japan, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-US alliance.” But America’s response to the war in Ukraine has told many Japanese that the alliance may need to be strengthened and that Japan should not depend solely on the United States for its security.
This requires some basic principles of Japanese security, starting with the pacifist constitution. The Constitution of Japan, drafted under the leadership of US Chief of Staff Douglas Arthur during Japan’s Allied occupation of Japan, aimed to ensure that the country never threatened others.
Japan’s military pacifism is enshrined in Article 9: “Sincere justice to the people’s world based on order and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign nation and by force or its use as after the threat of inter-settlement of international conflicts.” So. «land, sea and air forces, as well as other military capabilities, will never be created. The right of the state to wage war will not be recognized. “
If Russia has what it wants, China can choose to increase its pressure on Taiwan.
During the Korean War, Article 9 was interpreted somewhat more loosely to allow some Japan to defend itself. In 1954, under the new law on self-defense forces, limited land, sea and air forces were created.
However, Japan’s constitution is growing that threats to the country are not enough to require significant military capabilities. As stated before, “we, the Japanese people, longing for peace at all times and deeply aware of the high ideals that govern human relations, and we are determined to maintain our security and exist, relying on the justice and faith of peace-loving peoples.”
In other words, if Japan remained demilitarized, it would not threaten or attack other countries. Many leftists in Japan often reiterate this conclusion, arguing that demilitarization and neutrality are the formula for peace.
But, as the war in Ukraine shows, not all nations of the world – or at least their leaders – are peace-loving. relentless bombing of residential areas by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the start of a conflict that has led nuclear forces other than the country to a state of heightened combat readiness.
The statement has troubled much of the world, but has been of particular concern to Japan, the only country to have emerged from nuclear strikes. Japan has long opposed any nuclear weapon. However, more and more countries are developing it. One of these countries, North Korea, also regularly tests missiles, which are often given in the Sea of Japan.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO and has not had its own nuclear deterrent since 1994. In addition, US President Joe Biden is clearly taking direct action that does not want to risk a military confrontation with Russia, for example, by establishing a selfless zone over Ukraine. This raised fears that if Japan knew of a nuclear power or an attack on Russia, China, or North Korea, the United States would similarly refuse to defend it. Yes, the United States has pledged to do so under the Japan Security Treaty, but Japan cannot know whether or not the United States will comply with that US commitment until it is too late.
With this in mind, the ruling Liber Democratic Party (LDP) seeks to amend the constitution to directly mention Japan’s right to self-defense and to recognize its self-defense forces. New peace-loving Prime Minister Fumio Kisida supports the amendment, saying he will insist on its discussion in the Seimas.
Moreover, some Japanese, most notably Abe, are in favor of extending the US-Japan Security Treaty to include an agreement on the joint use of nuclear weapons, as established by NATO. For a country that more than half a century ago swore never to produce, possess or publish nuclear weapons, this is a very controversial proposition. In the 1970s, it would have provoked a barrage of criticism. Therefore, nuclear Kisida says that his government does not plan to reconsider Japan’s position on weapons, some LDP politicians are now ready for such a discussion.
The prospects for this debate depend to a large extent on what answers Russia will demand. If Putin relinquishes aggression in Ukraine and makes concessions without experiencing serious economic problems, Japan will be motivated to take radical action to ensure our security. In this sense, commitment to sanctions is important for stability in Asia.
NV has the exclusive right to translate and publish Project Syndicate columns. Publication of the full version of the text is prohibited.
Copyright : Project Syndicate 2022
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