“Putin can’t go back” – Vorarlberger Nachrichten
Schwarzach, Innsbruck For more than four weeks, Russia has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine. The heavy fighting never ends, thousands of people are said to have been killed, millions are fleeing. How to proceed is unclear. Negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are ongoing. The political scientist and Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck refers to contradictory reports on the progress of the talks. If Moscow does not achieve its demands, there will probably be an actual escalation.
Current events. “There were obvious misconceptions on the Russian side when planning the actual action,” says Mangott. This is reflected in the current development. The number of soldiers killed was higher than expected, and Moscow probably underestimated Ukraine’s resistance. Around Kyiv there is “a kind of standstill of the war”, in cities like Kharkiv apparently no progress by Russia. But the situation is different in the Donbass and in the south. “The picture is mixed.”
inner circle. President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for relations with international organizations, Anatoly Chubais, recently announced his resignation. He belongs to the liberal camp. Under the elected head of state Boris Yeltsin, he pushed ahead with the privatization of the economy in the 1990s as deputy head of government and head of the presidential administration. He later managed important companies. Chubais is considered one of the architects of the economic shock therapy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, says Mangott. However, his last function was no longer so influential, and he increasingly distanced himself. “The resignation was actually expected.” It is not a threat to the inner circle.
status of negotiations. Both sides are currently talking about an end to the war. Russian demands include Ukraine’s neutrality and demilitarization. Moscow is also insisting on the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Kyiv insists on territorial integrity, but has recently shown a willingness to compromise on neutrality. “There are always conflicting reports about the progress of the negotiations,” says Mangott. The progress is furthest, but probably in the renunciation of a desired NATO membership, the neutral status. “But even there there are differences.” Russia wants a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine. Certain weapon systems should therefore not be stationed, and the size of the troops should be limited – unacceptable for Kyiv. The required security guarantees meant the alliance fell through the back door according to Article 5 of the NATO treaty. “It is questionable whether Russia would be willing to accept that.” Western countries also did not want a conflict with Moscow.
duration of the war. At least in the next few weeks, no end to the war can be expected, says Mangott. “If Russia does not achieve its goal of surrendering and recognizing the demands, it will escalate militarily.” The capacities are disputed. But: “Putin cannot go back. He must avoid anything that would mean a political or deliberate defeat of Russia. Not so much towards the population, but towards the ruling elite.” VN RAM