Putin is pushing Finland and Sweden closer to NATO membership
What a difference three weeks can make. Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, European politics have changed, seemingly at a rapid pace. Even Germany has been called upon to take its defense commitments seriously and rectify its military shortcomings.
Denmark announced plans to meet NATO’s benchmark to spend 2% of GDP on defense. Italian Prime Minister Draghi also demanded significant increases in defense spending, anger“Today’s threat from Russia is an incentive to invest more in defense than we have ever done before.”
Putin’s brutality has apparently shattered many Europeans’ illusions about the regime’s nature in Moscow, the need for military capability and the belief that the “rule-based international order” could avoid the kind of unnecessary bloodshed we see every day in Ukraine.
In Finland and Sweden, it has accelerated the languorous, long-standing debate on NATO membership. That debate is now moving forward in a somewhat surprising way.
Although not members of NATO, Finland and Sweden are “enhanced opportunities partners” with the Alliance. Both have signed host nation support agreements with NATO. In addition, Finland, Sweden and the United States signed a trilateral letter of intent in 2018 to strengthen defense co-operation.
While connected to and in many parts of the Western world, none of the nations has seriously sought NATO membership for fear of upsetting regional stability and also because – at least so far – of lukewarm public support for the idea.
>>> Ukraine crisis should give China a break in Taiwan
Yet there has always been an unspoken belief that NATO would face Finland and Sweden with open arms if they ever sought membership.
That’s still the case. In addition to the close relations (for example, both nations are currently participating in NATO Cold Response 2022a large-scale cold weather exercise in Norway), Finland and Sweden would strengthen the alliance and remove any remaining question marks in the alliance’s operational planning for the Baltic theater.
Still, Putin is deeply concerned about any expansion of NATO. In late February, he repeated prolonged threat that if either nation were to seek membership, it would have “serious military policy consequences.”
Earlier, before the invasion, Finland and Sweden received a letter from Russia which requires “security guarantees”. The answered via a collective letter from the European Union. While the EU’s Lisbon Treaty contains a mutual defense clause, the organization’s miniature role in responding to the ongoing Ukraine war underlines what Finns and Swedes already know: the EU’s mutual defense clause is no substitute for NATO’s Article V.
This reality is reflected in recent measurements, which show surging support for Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership. In Sweden, for the first time, more people support membership than oppose it. In Finland, 63% now support membership, while only 16% are against. Just a few years ago51% of Finns opposed membership.
The consensus that elected representatives would need to strongly advocate for NATO membership and drive public opinion around has been turned upside down.
Today, it is the officials in Helsinki and Stockholm who are dragging their feet. While Sweden’s opposition conservative parties support NATO membership, the Social Democrats in power are still opposed. Just last week, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said membership would “Further destabilize the situation.”
Yet there has always been an unspoken belief that NATO would face Finland and Sweden with open arms if they ever sought membership.
That’s still the case. In addition to the close relations (for example, both nations are currently participating in NATO Cold Response 2022a large-scale cold weather exercise in Norway), Finland and Sweden would strengthen the alliance and remove any remaining question marks in the alliance’s operational planning for the Baltic theater.
>>> Putin’s nuclear threat to Ukraine demands a NATO response
Still, Putin is deeply concerned about any expansion of NATO. In late February, he repeated prolonged threat that if either nation were to seek membership, it would have “serious military policy consequences.”
Earlier, before the invasion, Finland and Sweden received a letter from Russia which requires “security guarantees”. The answered via a collective letter from the European Union. While the EU’s Lisbon Treaty contains a mutual defense clause, the organization’s miniature role in responding to the ongoing Ukraine war underlines what Finns and Swedes already know: the EU’s mutual defense clause is no substitute for NATO’s Article V.
This reality is reflected in recent measurements, which show surging support for Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership. In Sweden, for the first time, more people are supporting membership than against it. In Finland, 63% now support membership, while only 16% are against. Just a few years ago51% of Finns opposed membership.
The consensus that elected representatives would need to strongly advocate for NATO membership and drive public opinion around has been turned upside down.
Today, it is the officials in Helsinki and Stockholm who are pulling the strings. While Sweden’s opposition conservative parties support NATO membership, the Social Democrats in power are still opposed. Just last week, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said membership would “Further destabilize the situation.”