Sweden’s ex-prime minister talks about Ukraine, effects on Europe
When the war in Ukraine entered its third week, Perry World House hosted Sweden’s former Prime Minister Carl Bildt to give their assessment of the conflict and where NATO, the European Union and the world go from here.
Bildt, who was also Sweden’s former foreign minister, has helped navigate major international challenges in his career that spans five decades, including by negotiating directly with Russia when the Ukraine crisis began in 2014.
He was introduced on Monday night by the interim president Wendell Pritchett.
“One of the biggest questions we face now is what happens next? Or with the prophetic words of General David Petraeus who spoke in 2003 about the Iraq war, ‘Tell me how this ends,'” Pritchett said, welcoming Bildt, a Distinguished Global Leader in Residence at Perry World House, “to share his invaluable experience on these and other major issues.”
The discussion was moderated by New York Times reporter and editor Clay Risena guest fellow at the Perry World House.
Bildt began the evening by looking back at the region’s history from the Tsars to the First World War to the current crisis.
“We have not seen anything like this since Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in September 1939, and this time the responsibility lies entirely with one person, Vladimir Putin,” he said. “The outcome is still uncertain, but one thing is clear: Europe and the world will not be the same. The consequences will be enormous for a long time to come.”
He called Putin’s ideas that Ukraine belongs to Russia “unhistorical and delusional”.
He described how Putin has constantly misjudged Ukraine and the will of the people, first in 2014, and now with this war.
What will happen in the next few weeks is difficult to predict, he said, noting that thousands are more likely to die, millions more will flee and cities will be pulverized.
“The only thing that is certain is that Vladimir Putin cannot win,” Bildt said. “His insane chance with his country’s future will result in a Russia that is much weaker, much more isolated and less likely to survive in its current form than before. If he tried to secure his place in Russian history, I think he has done at this point. “
Risen asked Bildt what Putin was wrong about Ukraine.
“Most things,” Bildt said. Putin really thought he would be welcomed and expected a completely different reception, he said.
“He can not accept that Ukraine is an independent nation; he thinks it belongs to Russia, Bildt said.
Instead, Putin’s actions have resulted in a much more united and much stronger Ukrainian nation that will continue to fight for its future, Bildt said. “It will be a much stronger Ukraine that will have solidarity and support from large parts of the world.”
In recent years, Putin has spent more time talking about Russia’s past than its future, talking about Russia’s territorial losses in a way that borders on occupation, he said.
The discussion then turned to audience questions, from participants both in the room and watching Zoom. Topics ranged from whether the Western world could sustainably hold back Russia to whether sanctions could be tougher on Putin himself and on oligarchs.
Bildt pointed to the freezing of Russia’s central bank’s assets as the most surprising sanction agreement, one that will have an immediate effect; Russia’s GDP has fallen by 10% and the ruble is significantly lower. Restrictions on technology will soon be painful, he said.
If Europeans reduce Russian gas imports, Russia will survive as an economy, but it would look more like Iran or Venezuela, he said.
“Venezuela is a deeply miserable place. It is not Russia that Putin promised his voters,” Bildt said.
It is important to remember that Putin started as an economic reformer, Bildt said. Putin was lucky at first, with 10 years of high oil prices and rising personal income, but he has struggled with it for a while, and now Russia’s middle class will begin to lose its status and disposable income.
He called it “tragic” and pointed to IKEA leaving the country as an example. The Swedish furniture giant opened up in Russia in the 1990s and invested heavily there.
“For the Russians, it was much more than providing them with bookshelves; it was a sign of getting out of the sad Soviet life. And now IKEA is closing everything and laying off 50,000 people. These are tragic things. “
IKEA and McDonald’s to withdraw from Russia has nothing to do with sanctions, Bildt said, but rather “individual companies say:” It is toxic. Our customers will not accept that we have business with Russia and that effect is profound. “
Now, because of the war, London and Brussels are talking and coordinating in a way that seemed impossible in the midst of the Brexit drama, he said. There has been good cooperation between Europe and Washington. He believes that there will continue to be a significant increase in defense spending in Europe, which will also facilitate transatlantic relations.
“Dramatic, tragic weeks and months lie ahead, but the long-term future of the West does not look so bad after all.”
A recording of the entire conversation is available at Perry World House’s Youtube channel.