Second half of March in Portugal, as rainy as the first?
We are just a few days away, 5 to be more precise, from the arrival of Astronomical Spring (March 20). For Climatology, spring started last March 1st and, on that day, rain fell, for many months, was almost absent. In fact, throughout the winter, there were no months of occurrence of long and abundant winter events, which triggered a very serious drought situation in mainland Portugal.
Now, after a first fortnight that lived up to the popular proverb “in march, raining a bit every day”, in which the drought has already eased, it is possible to observe streams, rivers, dams, fields and agricultural soils repairing their water levels. So, the question that arises is: Will the second half of March be as rainy as the first? And from temperatures, what can we expect?
Hot start and “dusty metering distribution”, with dusty metering distribution
The third week started in March yesterday, with a humid panorama of agility and a little all over the country. The largest accumulations of rain on the Continent are occurring in the Baixo Alentejo and Algarve thanks to the storm Celiaa high-impact storm (only the third to be named in 2021/2022) that started with “bomb” a Wood with strong winds, Wood snow and hail.
It is now situated between the south of mainland Portugal and Morocco, and isolated in its southernmost altitude from the southernmost region. In addition, another curious phenomenon is the presence of Sahara dust, transported from North Africa to the Iberian Peninsula by the southeastern flow induced by Storm Celia.
At the same time, we witnessed a Rise of scenes across the countrytriggered by the drag of the warm and dry North African air, associated with Celia and the flow here. Therefore, it is not surprising that as refractoriesaccording to the model of the European model, present values above normal during this entire week in mainland Portugal.
As for the dust, these will give rise to “Martian” landscapes across the country until March 17, next Thursday.. Beware of worsening air quality. As they can be respected, the use of an FFP2 mask is recommended. From Friday the 18th, the dust will dissipate.
With regard to the specification, or in the areas where it is foreseen, more likely south of the Tagus, with emphasis on Central Alentejo, Baixo Alentejo and Algarve, you can “cairchuva de mud”, phenomenon triggered by bird with the Saharan dustwhich will soil surfaces.
So, as far as the and must be done throughout the entire week, thisprobably thanks to the location and movement of storm Celia, which above all Central and Southern Portugal mainland. The occasional occurrence of thunderstorm dispersionsespecially indoors and in the afternoon.
Chance of rain and thunderstorms early next week
For the next week, the Europeans anticipate a situation similar to this, thermally speaking. It will be hotter than usual across the country, with a positive 1°C anomaly expected north to south of the country.. In the Northeast of Trás-os-Montes the values will be even more expressive, with up to 3 °C above the reference average.
under the foreseen circumstances, by the ECMWF until end of marchlikely to extend through the first days of April, temperatures higher than normal for the time of year.
As for the indication, either the weekly trend map of the georeferenced, or the weekly trend map of the recommendation, that is, transport from a deposit area west/south of mainland Portugalpositioned over Madeira and the Canaries, for the week of March 21st to 28th.
In a first phase, it would translate into meteorological instability in these archipelagosand, subsequently, according to the normal zonal circulation (west-east), would result in the arrival of more rain to mainland Portugal, possibly following the 21st and 24th of March.
The verification anomaly must be registered in the Setúbal Peninsula, Alentejo and Eastern Algarve. For the rest of the country, it is expected within the values of the reference climatological normal. From the 28th of March onwards, it will likely show normal patterns for the time of year.
Are these models reliable?
Finally, it should be noted that these models are only an experimental tool, useful for general and/or probabilistic predictionwhich provides a rough idea of a long-term trend in the evolution of parameters such as temperature or continuous duration.
There are no meteorological systems such as fronts, cyclones or isolated depressions, which can change the general character of a month in just days. Thus, these conditions may change from one region to another over the course of weeks, or may not be determined in certain areas.