Will Sweden and Finland scrap neutrality ahead of Ukraine’s invasion?
For many, many decades now, the world’s politicians have been dependent on the political neutrality of Sweden and Finland, as most of the rest of Europe sided during the Cold War and thereafter, joined NATO or remained in the former Soviet sphere. of influence.
But this balance may change forever after the Russian invasion of the “common European homeland” so affectionately referred to by Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Secretary-General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, has shaken the continent to its core.
Russia’s invasion of the heart of Europe has created a change in how these traditionally neutral countries, which have long been proud to be separated from the struggle of international alliances and the tensions that may arise from them, will face a future in which open warfare has broken out. the continent.
Sweden and Finland may face a change in policy
Support for joining the NATO alliance has now risen to record levels, according to surveys conducted in these Nordic countries.
A survey commissioned by the Finnish TV company YLE last week showed that more than 50% of Finns support joining the Western military alliance. This is the first time in history that has occurred when Finns seem to take a stand against their giant neighbor to the east.
In Sweden, which has long been such a beacon for neutrality that it often engages in diplomacy among countries that do not have diplomatic relations with each other, another survey also showed that a majority of citizens are in favor of NATO membership.
The enormous importance of the wave leaning in favor of joining the Western alliance can not be overestimated. “The unthinkable can begin to become conceivable,” former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, a spokesman for NATO membership, said in a recent tweet.
Sweden sends 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine
And unbelievably, Sweden has already sent munitions to Ukraine on its own, and taken the initiative to do so when they sent 5,000 axle-fired anti-tank weapons to the military there.
Although the warring country will not get Sweden’s state-of-the-art “Robot 57” rocket launchers, the shipment of these more portable weapons to Ukraine means a major change in the policy for the Swedes, according to the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.
Armor shot 86 is not able to take out an entire modern tank, the manufacturers say, but it can fix a tank charge in the field and stop it from advancing.
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The ancestor of the single-shot 74 mm uncontrolled anti-tank weapon with a smooth hole, recoilless, called Miniman, was designed in Sweden by the Swedish Armed Forces (FFV) and put into operation in 1968.
In 1986, the Swedish army adopted FFV AT4, designated Pansarskott m / 86, to replace Miniman; FFV engineers, however, adopted the robust but simple firing and safety mechanism from Miniman for AT4.
Moving targets can be attacked at a range of 150 meters (490 feet) while stationary targets can be attacked at 250 meters (820 feet). Miniman’s HEAT projectile has a copper lining and can penetrate 340 mm (13 inches) of rolled homogeneous armor, the manufacturers say.
Of course, NATO will not immediately take the neutral countries into its trap and at present there is no clear parliamentary majority to join any of the countries. But the simple fact that opinion polls show that most people in these unwaveringly neutral countries want to take the significant step of becoming allies with the West is telling.
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The shipment of anti-tank weapons is the first time Sweden has offered military aid since 1939, when it assisted Finland in its fight against the Soviet Union, although it remained nervous during the Second World War that was going on then.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warns the Nordic countries
As evidence of the seismic change that seems to be taking place in the warming of ties between NATO and the Nordic countries, the Russian Foreign Ministry complained of concern over what it said was the US and some of its allies’ efforts to “pull” Finland and Sweden in. in the alliance.
Obliviously, it also warned that Russia would be forced to take revenge in some way if they joined the group.
That threat was immediately rebuked by government officials in both countries, who declared that they would not allow Moscow to dictate their security policy.
“I want to be extremely clear: It is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line,” Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson replied after the Russian warning.
But it is Finland that has had to bear the burden of having a long border of 1,340 kilometers (830 kilometers) with its giant neighbor to the east. The country has been invaded dozens of times over the centuries, not only when it was part of the once powerful Swedish kingdom, but also when it was an independent nation.
Finland fought two separate wars with the Soviet Union, 1939-40 and 1941-44. But the post-war years meant a continuation of the status quo, where the balance between East and West was precarious but not threatened by either side.
Accession to the EU in 1995 meant new international cooperation with continental Europe
Sweden, for its part, swore off all military alliances and invasions after the catastrophic battle of Poltava in 1709, where it was ruled by Tsar Peter I and lost all its Baltic territories.
The strict neutrality of the two Nordic countries was somewhat broken by their accession to the European Union in 1995 and the gradual growth of co-operation with NATO. But over the years – until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February – a majority of citizens of both countries had withdrawn from joining the alliance.
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The YLE survey showed that only 28% of Finns were against joining NATO while 53% were in favor; The survey included opinions from 1,382 respondents interviewed 23 to 25 February, while Russia’s invasion began on 24 February.
Matti Pesu, senior researcher at the Finnish International Institute, says “This is a very significant change”, in an interview with the Associated Press. “We have had a situation in the last 25-30 years where Finns’ views on NATO have been very stable. It now seems to have changed completely. ”
Although Pesu acknowledged that these were only the results of a single survey, Pesu pointed out that no similar change in public opinion had occurred after Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia or its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, “so this is an exception.”
At the same time in Sweden, a similar survey at the end of February, sponsored by SVT, showed that 41% of Swedes supported joining NATO; 35% opposed it, which was the first time that those who were to participate in the alliance exceeded the number who were against.
Biden calls Finland a “strong defense partner” after the meeting
The Nordic duo, key partners for NATO in the Baltic Sea region, where Russia has sharply increased its military maneuvers over the past decade, have strongly emphasized that it is up to them alone to decide whether they want to join the military alliance.
But the swing to the west seems to have been in the air even before the Russian invasion, as Finnish President Sauli Niinisto pointed out that “Finland’s room for maneuver and freedom of choice also includes the possibility of military adaptation and applying for NATO membership, we would decide”. New Year’s speeches to the nation.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has remained openly uninvolved and seems to be making an effort not to pressure membership in the Nordic countries, while saying last week that “this is a matter of self-determination and the sovereign right to choose one’s own path and then potentially in the future, also to apply for NATO. “
Unlike the case in the EU, where there are layers of conditions for members to join, there are no fixed rules for nations that want to join the alliance; Some political and other considerations still need to be met, according to a report by the Associated Press, which quoted experts who believed that Finland and Sweden would qualify for a quick entry that would only take a few months.
Finland and Sweden are already cooperating with NATO, which allows the Alliance’s troops to conduct military exercises on their territory and works closely with the United States, Great Britain and the Scandinavian neighbor Norway.
Niinisto met with US President Joe Biden in the White House last Friday “to discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the effects of the war on the European security order and bilateral cooperation”, according to the President’s Office; however, no NATO message came out of the meeting.
Biden agreed to deepen security ties with his Finnish counterpart, but ended up leaving some formal guarantees to the country, which no doubt nervously sees Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfold.
Both men ended by saying that Finland would try to join NATO or become an important non-NATO ally to the United States, which would be a term that gives a certain degree of improved security cooperation.
But after their 90-minute meeting, Biden called Finland a “strong defense partner” that helps with a “united transatlantic response to hold Russia accountable.”
Biden had called Niinisto in December 2021 and told him he was pleased with his country’s decision to buy 64 Lockheed Martin F-35A stealth fighter jets to replace its aging F-18 fighter jets. At the time, Biden said the agreement would pave the way for closer US-Finnish military ties in the coming years.
At the same time, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last week that her Social Democratic Party would discuss possible NATO membership with other parties; however, she did not provide a time frame for the talks. Regardless, she admits that the disturbing events of the past have changed the political game plan, perhaps for the better.
“Together, we see that the security situation has changed remarkably since Russia attacked Ukraine. That is a fact that we must acknowledge,” she said.