The war in Ukraine encourages Finland and Sweden to consider joining NATO
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brutal campaign to discourage Ukraine from joining NATO has inadvertently increased the popularity of the military alliance among other future member states.
As Russia’s attacks on its neighbor intensify, neighboring Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their long-standing positions of military neutrality, with a majority of voters now for the first time advocating membership in the 30-member alliance.
In opinion polls released on Friday, half (51%) of Swedes and 48% of Finns said they would support their country joining NATO, while about a quarter were against it. A previous survey carried out in February also showed the majority of Finns’ support.
Finland’s former prime minister said in a speech to CNBC on Monday that the latest Finnish survey represents a “reversal” in public opinion that reflects the “rational fear” currently felt by the public.
“[It’s] fear of an aggressive superpower in the form of Russia. Fear of an attacker and a military power, “Alexander Stubb told CNBC’s” Street Signs Europe “.
A complex process
Prospective NATO members can apply to the Defense Bloc by meeting certain political and economic requirements, with any adoption voted on by existing member states.
However, it is unlikely that the two Nordic states will agree to move quickly or easily.
Right now we do not want to escalate the crisis or the war up here in the north-eastern part of Europe.
Alexander Stubb
Professor and Director, European University Institute
Putin has long seen NATO’s refusal to block its neighbor, Ukraine, from the alliance as a military act of aggression, listing it among a number of conditions to stop his current attack. Admitting Finland – which shares a 1,300-kilometer-long land border with Russia, the European Union’s largest – or Sweden would probably face similar opposition.
In fact, Russia’s defense minister has previously said such measures would have military consequences. Already, Russian fighter jets are said to have invaded Swedish airspace.
Jeff Overs | BBC News & Current Affairs | Getty pictures
Authorities in Sweden and Finland have so far shown no signs of solving tests.
Sweden’s Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist told reporters last week that although they deepened their cooperation with NATO, they would not change their position overnight based solely on opinion polls.
At the same time, Stubb, who served from 2014 to 2015, said that the current government increased military spending but was no longer a member of NATO.
“Right now we do not want to escalate the crisis or the war up here in the north-eastern part of Europe,” said Stubb, who is currently professor and head of transnational governance at the European University Institute.
Still, the change in public mood is historic for two countries with previous friendly relations with Russia, and another potential miscalculation in Putin’s war.
“I predict that as the war continues, day by day, support for Finnish NATO membership will increase,” Stubb said.
“The train has left the station,” he added.