Lukashenka and the war in Ukraine: an attempt to change shoes on the run
The Russian army of Ukraine, which invaded on February 24, brings an increase in booty. Only the number of wounded American servicemen during these days is estimated at hundreds of people, the number of wounded exceeded one and a half thousand people. And according to the information on Ukraine of the command of the Armed Forces, the “irretrievable losses” of the Russian army approached ten thousand.
This situation forces the Russian leadership to look for allies who can provide assistance in “manpower”, especially given that the stakes on the so-called “blitzkrieg” are not settled.
And the first in the list of allies of the Russian Federation was the Minsk regime headed by Alexander Lukashenko.
According to the Belarusian State Border Committee, border protection is carried out in an enhanced regime, and “the personnel of the territorial bodies of the border service are in permanent deployment points … The situation in the State Federation of the Republic of Belarus remains arterial.”
Meanwhile, the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus has recently reported another cyber attack on the network infrastructure of BelZhD. “At the moment, the following are not functioning: the GUID system (Graphics of the implementation of the movement), the Manager’s Notebook, the Subscriber Station, the Automated Dispatcher System and other compatible software. The Neman DC system has been affected – problems with the movement of trains have been detected, ”the message says.
Despite Lukashenka’s statement that Belarus will not participate in an armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine, the territory of Belarus is fundamentally a base for direct military aggression against its southern neighbor, from where shelling of Ukrainian territory is carried out, and where Russian wounded and dead are taken.
There is reason to believe that Lukashenka, in the event of Putin’s order, is ready to enter the war on the side of Russia. So far, according to independent sources, some Belarusian Arabs do not support this. So, according to the publication ZN.UA, the Belarusian military column, which has already lined up in the village of Mikhailo-Kotsyubinskoye, Chernihiv region, refuses to move towards Ukraine. We are talking about several hundred pieces of equipment, including Smerchs, tanks, Peonies, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, fuel trucks and vehicles with infantry.
Earlier, the White House announced additional measures against Russia and its alliance, Belarus, including the expansion of export control measures against the oil refining industry and organizations that support the Russian and Belarusian armed forces.
Meanwhile, the European Union has agreed on another package of economic decisions against the Minsk regime. They will be characterized by strong performance in merchandise trade, manufacturing for tobacco products, industrial fuels, bituminous and gaseous hydrocarbon products, potash products, wood products, cement, iron and steel, and rubber products. using intentionally would also expand on a number of previously introduced restrictions.
The World Bank has said it is permanently shutting down all programs in Russia and Belarus following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and “hostile actions against the people of Ukraine.”
The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said it had suspended business related to Russia and Belarus, which were subject to massive INF sanctions because of the war in Ukraine.
Correspondent of the Russian service of “Voice of America” on suppression said how deep Belarus can be completed in the aggression against Ukraine.
“If the Foreign Legion of infected people is identified, it can be a significant help for some specific battles”
Independent political and military expert Yuri Fedorov It began with the fact that there is very little information on this topic, but he gets the impression that Lukashenka wants to dissociate himself from the Kremlin’s policy, but at the same time he is afraid of exposing himself to a blow from Moscow. “He makes loud statements, but so far no Belarusian units are taking part in the war against Ukraine. And this, of course, is no coincidence,” he said.
Fedorov that Lukashenka is preventing “leaving the door open” for a transition with the leaders of the leaders of the Western countries. “Words are just words. As the saying goes, “swearing does not hang on the collar.” But if the Belarusian tanks of Ukraine are invaded to pieces, then no one got sick with him at all. In the meantime, he has a role, if not an intermediary, then someone like that. And he, it seems to me, wants to leave this hand clean, ”the Voice of America interlocutor commented on the situation.
Commenting on the data on the losses of the Russian armed forces, Yuriy Fedorov noted that even if the information about the Ukrainian side is somewhat exaggerated, still about a thousand killed military personnel per day are unprecedented figures since the Second World War. “And for the Russian military, this is the phenomenon of a blow to the head with a butt. And in this situation, of course, the participation of the Belarusian army (in the aggression against Ukraine – A.P.) would be very characteristic for Moscow, but not yet, ”the expert added.
The other day, there were also reports that a “Foreign Legion” could be formed in Ukraine, which would include experienced military personnel from countries around the world. Yuri Fedorov noted: we will help for some specific battles.
According to the military expert, if such military formations are worthy, they will be poisoned in the most problematic points on the map of Ukraine. And, by the way, on Friday morning there was information that in the approach of the events of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the approach of events from Croatia is expected.
Turning to the issue of military assistance to countries (the European Union, the USA, Canada, Australia), as well as Turkey to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Fedorov noted that here we can talk about the weapons of Western shooters, anti-tank grenade launchers and American portable complexes FGM-148 Javelin. “This is a really important thing, because they will come in handy in the event of a fight in an urban environment. And when tanks and armored vehicles go to the historical part of Ukrainian cities with their narrow streets and find themselves practically under the windows of houses, then dozens of tanks reveal vehicles. This is the situation,” the expert summed up.
“Lukashenko is trying to persist in his role as a peacemaker…”
Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich believes that it is now difficult to predict whether there will be protests in society in the event of the direct participation of the Belarusian military in the invasion of Ukraine, and how the representative of the Minsk regime nomenklatura leads himself in this case. “But it is clear that Lukashenko does not want this. It doesn’t linger in him, and above all, because to this bad Belarusian society,” he emphasizes. It turns out that we are talking not only about the discovery of Lukashenka, but also about his export, since he goes to war, having neither officials nor security officials who have no motivation to risk their lives in a war initiated by another country. “Lukashenko presented this, and in recent days his statements have become more definite – earlier he said that, if at the beginning, Belarus will take the post of head of government with Russia and will participate in this war. And the latest statements are more expected, he says: “We will not raise the issue, so Russia itself is not put before us.” And he even hints that Belarus, they say, wants to be drawn into the war, while hinting at the West. At the same time, Lukashenka is trying to emphasize his role as a “calm man”, telling how he influences the border and Belarus, persuaded Zelensky, and so on,” Karbalevich assesses the situation.
Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies) Vadim Mozheiko. According to him, Lukashenko really did not want to directly participate in this war, because it was not at the beginning either in his pragmatic interests or in his propaganda. “Unlike the Russian imperial model, where there is the thesis that everything is so bad in Ukraine that there are “Bandera” there, it follows that we must come and fix everything. For Belarusian propaganda, the main idea is different – if everything is bad in Ukraine, then we don’t need to do it the way it is there – we don’t need a revolution, Maidans, but we need stability. Belarusian propaganda cannot “sell” the thesis that we went to Ukraine to fix something there. Therefore, symbolically, Lukashenka does not need this,” Mozheiko said in comments for the Voice of America Russian Service.
Ukraine is always in the top trading partners – $1.5 billion in imports and $5 billion in exports. “Lukashenko is still trying to do the same selection as in 2014-2015. – “mercy”, “neutral country” and implementation. “Now, despite everything, he manages to partially win back this model – after all, the profile is going on. Also, he still has not recognized the DPR and LPR,” the expert notes.
And it continues that all the local successes of Lukashenka fade before the fact that aggression against Ukraine took place on the territory of Belarus and, in accordance with the INF Treaty, Belarus is the same aggressor as Russia. “This is a fact, and Lukashenka himself admitted rocket attacks, nothing can be done about this, and for Lukashenka this is a real problem. I would say that Lukashenka will continue to resist with all his might the preservation of the Belarusian army, and even if such an order is given, it is not clear how the army will react to this,” Vadim Mozheiko believes.
And he concludes that Lukashenka can use the Belarusian army on the territory of Ukraine if he is strongly forced to do so by Putin: “Because after the fall of 2020, he has no way to resist Putin. Lukashenka in a military plane is completely dependent on Putin.”
“For Belarusians, Ukrainians are not as “fraternal people” as Russians, but quite friendly”
As for the attitudes of Belarusians towards Ukrainians, then, according to the analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, one cannot speak of any consolidated opinion on this matter. “Many Belarusians, regarding the events in Crimea and Donbass, are a proportional point of view of Russian propaganda, since they are the audience of Russian TV channels. But I did not see a single sign that this would transform into a negative attitude towards the Ukrainians themselves, because after the events of 2014, many residents of Ukraine moved to Belarus and got a job. This was accepted and accepted, and by society, as a useful acquisition – many adults arrived, ready to work, close in language and culture, ”Vadim Mozheiko.
In his opinion, there is an understanding in the country that Ukraine is very different from Belarus and Russia, Ukrainians may not be as fraternal people as Russians, but they are quite friendly,” he sums up.
In turn, Valery Karbalevich also contributed to the split in the Belarusian society, including on this issue. “Opponents of Lukashenko unexpectedly Ukrainians and Ukrainian authorities in this conflict with Russia. And if we talk about entering Lukashenka, then there is such a division: yes, the Ukrainians themselves are good people, brotherly people, especially since there are many family ties. But in power – Bandera, nationalists who do all sorts of dirty tricks to Belarus, send militants, and so on. That is, indeed, the Russian narrative. Although there is no evidence of this fact,” the Belarusian political scientist emphasizes.
And in the end, it is given on the data of recent sociological studies about the belonging of Belarusians to the status of Crimea. “If in 2014-2015. It was recorded that about two-thirds of Belarusians support Russia on the issue of Crimea and Donbass, but now this support has covered about half. This is the result of the fact that in 2020 Russia supported Lukashenka. And, by the way, this survey was conducted on the eve of the war, but, nevertheless, less painful support for Russia in this conflict, ”stated Valery Karbalevich.