Red larger than SV – NRK Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
With a support of 8.9 percent, Rødt is larger than SV, shows the recent party barometer Norstat has conducted for NRK and Aftenposten.
– Red has succeeded very well in the opposition role. The party has succeeded in filling a role as a watchdog, and the party is also very active in making a clear mark in a number of cases. It has been a formula for success for Rødt to stand outside the government, says Johannes Bergh.
He is head of research at the Department of Social Research.
In the survey for March, only SV’s decline to 7.9 per cent is greater than error margins.
Pusher to the left
The decline of 2.5 percentage points comes after a relatively high result for SV in February, when the party received a support of 10.4 percent.
– Like Rødt, SV has won by standing outside the government and being a party that pushes the government to the left. But now it seems they are going back. Perhaps this is because SV ends up in the shadow of other issues, it may be because Rødt has succeeded better in the opposition role. SV is, after all, more closely linked to the government, says Bergh.
No Ukraine effect so far
The recording period for the survey was 22-28. February, and it has thus not captured all of the debate related to the war in Ukraine and Norway’s handling.
– The figures are actually quite stable, and it is worth noting that the Ukraine crisis that dominates the media picture does not affect the figures more strongly. This may change further in the future, says Johannes Bergh.
For external threats is often an advantage for a sitting government.
– It is not unknown that a security policy crisis can be to the advantage of the government, and show up in the polls. This has been seen from other countries when they are an external threat crisis, so people join the incumbent who is responsible for dealing with the crisis, Bergh points out.
Right largest party
In the same poll, the Labor Party gets a support of 22.6 percent.
The Labor Party also seems to have the most positive development in this survey, but the change of 2.6 percentage points is within the margin of error.
– The positive change is within the margin of error and it is too early to see if this is a new trend. The governing parties have lost in a way that is historic, and that really confirms this poll. So far, the picture is that the Labor Party has lost out on the pandemic crisis and the power crisis. It remains to be seen whether the security policy crisis will have a positive effect on the governing parties in the future, says Bergh.
On the bourgeois side, the Conservatives can once again enjoy being the largest party, with a support of 22.6 percent.
But beyond that, there is not much to celebrate on the right. Both the Conservatives and the Green Party receive lower support in March than in February, but here too the change is within the threshold.
– The Conservatives have done reasonably well since the election and are at a stable high level. The party is once again larger than the Labor Party. The Conservatives are in a stable situation and will probably win because they are the largest opposition party, says Bergh.
MDG below the threshold
Among the parties in the center, there is only talk of minor movements from February. The MDGs are the only party in the center that is below the threshold, with a support of 3.4 per cent.
If you look at how many seats this poll would have given the parties if there were elections today, the red-green side still has a majority with 90 seats.
On the bourgeois side, the Conservatives are also taking a solid leap in the number of seats. They would thus have received 44 representatives, if this had been the election result: