Will Sweden and Finland join NATO in the middle of the war between Russia and Ukraine?
Bout, at present the issue of NATO membership is still off the table because the governments of the countries lack sufficient parliamentary and public support to push through such a “controversial” security proposal.
Rather, there is the understanding that the war between Russia and Ukraine is the basis for stimulating a broader debate. At the same time, Finland has adopted what is called “Natos option”, Whereby if it considers that NATO membership is required to ensure Finland’s security, it will begin the application process for membership.
The general opinion and consensus between different party political observers on the attitude and prospects of the two countries to join NATO is that there is currently limited probability that this will happen in the near future. Despite the external and foreign environment and pressures that create an ever closer relationship between these countries and NATO, there are sufficient divisions and constraints in domestic policy that hinder the pursuit of such a move.
Possible consequences of the different scenarios
The neutrality / freedom of alliance status of Finland and Sweden has long been used as a means of regulating and managing their geopolitical security, and of navigating pitfalls and traps to actively engage in the war of major warring powers. These national foreign policy identities have been successful for both countries in preventing undue foreign interference and manipulation from the time of the Cold War onwards.