Women given more deputies to the left, men vote more for Chega. Gender asymmetry arrived in Portugal on January 30
PS. If only men voted, the PS would not have an absolute majority and three more deputies would arrive than the 12 it has. And if only majority parties vote for a majority under 3 years old, PS and tied, have the right and active Liberal Initiative PSD or.
These are some of the things to do study made by João Cancela and Pedro Magalhães based on the exit poll carried out on January 30th by Pitagórica. “How to measure not only the vote but also the sex, age and education of all important respondents, these data are initial tracks on the social bases of the parties. These are just three socio-demographic characteristics among many other relevant ones, whose relationship with voting will obviously be here in a preliminary way. But as the polls have the advantage to the advantage, in using it in a very large sample — where the differences, which are small, can easily be probed in the list of authors, explain the authors, explain the studies published and disseminated by Pedro Magalhães.
The big difference that these experts find in the January 30 vote is the gender asymmetry. In Portugal, it should be noted, men and women do not vote significantly differently. “Portugal really felt like one of the few – the only one? – European democracy where that happened. The modern ‘gender gap’ – the female vote more to the left than the male vote – had not yet arrived in Portugal”, they wrote. But it arrived on January 30th.
“There also seem to be new guidelines to mark the association between socio-demographic categories and voting. Two examples of choice for gender in elected behavior and with capacity for Liberal Initiative votes or for the vote of very selected candidates for the electorate”, they wrote already of a choice and, later, of presenting a parliamentary vote of the Voter votes. . women
Younger voters vote for the newer parties
Although the male and female vote show differences between them, whether in relation to the result of January 30, the result in which the difference is radically different is in the vote of those under 35 years old. There, there would be a tie of deputies between PS and PSD and IL would be the third parliamentary force. Even so, Chega would also have a higher vote than it had and five more deputies.
This is the scenario in which there would be a majority by right and the impossibility of the PS to have a majority that would govern it. “The newer parties — Enough, PAN, Livre and (especially) IL — were disproportionately more supported by younger voters. And among those under 25, parties of the right or center received 50% of the votes; among those over 54, only 37%. The third big difference is a party for A IL, which is a comfortable party with the most votes, among the youngest children”, announces João Cancela.
On the other hand, a voting scenario of only those over 34 would be a single chance of saving the CDS, even if only with one deputy
The question, however, confirms the trend that had already been observed in previous cases. “Some members who have already been chosen are presented, such as the ability of the party elected to the front, the most certain vote, more educated by the parties, political acts, more educated by the parties parties in political acts”.
“In 2022, the relationships between age and voting in PS and BE remained strong. Among voters, more than a third of the total votes on the continent — more than a third of the total votes on the continent — the most with less than 202% of the votes, with only 27% among the rest against Continente with more than 25 years. On the contrary, BE chose only 8% among the youngest 3% among the oldest. It should also be noted that the PSD disputed and obtained the first position among the youngest against the PS (29% vs. 27%), but lost by a lot among the older ones (51% vs. 28%)”, wrote the authors. in the more detailed part about the aerial distribution of votes.
The youth of the CDU
With regard to the level of education, the analysis of the data confirms, on the one hand, trends that are already occurring, but on the other hand, the most recent authors show data that the authors also consider an “atypical case” in the case of Chega: “In 2022, PS, BE PSD and kept their profiles kept. The former had much more support among voters with less than secondary education than among those with a degree (55% vs. 31%). In BE and PSD, the opposite occurred, as well as with Livre and PAN. But none of this comes close to the IL pattern, where the disproportion was enormous: 9% of voters with higher education voted for IL, against 1% of those with less than secondary education. Enough confirms something that was already thought to be known from previous data: less support among university students, but not much greater support among those who have less than secondary education. On the contrary, it is among the middle tier that Chega had the most votes in relative terms (10%).”
João Cancela and Pedro Magalhães also cross-referenced data using the three available. And there is a remarkable conclusion that may be surprising: after all, the CDU even has a good result in non-electoral positions; the problem is where there are few units. “The CDU continued the sequence of results it has been recording in the last electoral acts. Yet it is of record, in the sense of age-level in a different sense of education, that communism is largely elected in elected years – the idea of age-level even in education was selected in one year – the age-level category in empirical education. The best result was that of young people (18-24 years old) without, which however represents a much longer education for young people (18-24 years old) without, which nevertheless represents a very long portion of education in the Block to voters”, he says that the IL managed to beat capacity and “obfuscate capacity” and “obfuscate capacity” divided parties into the most educated.