When are we going to take off the masks? there is already an answer
The criteria are now available. Portugal keeps masks at Carnival but may not wear them at Easter yet. See is what it takes to make it happen
Sorry for the wordplay: the Portuguese still go to Carnival using it, but it’s possible that their free game will pass at Easter. This is the forecast presented according to mathematical models presented by the government according to the five weeks left to fulfill the determination of freedom. Masks may be mandatory indoors in early April.
This is one of the last announced in force, after the government recently approved in the Council of Ministers the withdrawal of a set of ministers, with the five measures that fall in the fight against covid-19. At a press conference this Thursday, the Minister of the Presidency said that all measures to combat covid-19 can only be raised when the death indicator drops to 20 deaths per million inhabitants.
Portugal currently has a 14-day average of 63 covid-19 deaths per million inhabitants. This number has to be reduced by about a third in order to move on to a new phase. According to data presented this Friday by Negóciosand the population in information of the Portuguese population, this means reaching the criterion of 15 two-week nights.
It’s possible? It has been and not long ago. From the 1st to the 5th of January this year, Portugal had an average of 14 days of precisely 15 deaths from covid-19. The number then rose to the most recent 14-day average of 45 deaths verified yesterday, February 17.
This can be seen in the following graph, drawn by CNN Portugal. The red line shows the 14-day average of deaths since the beginning of the arrival of the ómicron variant in Portugal, in early December last year.
It should be noted that the red in this graph is not the daily deaths, but the average of deaths verified in the 14 days prior to each date.
The peak of the fifth wave of covid-19, marked by the ómicron variant, took place at the end of January, with the number of infected people falling since then. The number of deaths also started to fall, but already in February, not least because there is a temporal distance between contagions and deaths. The lethality levels of this variant were much lower than those of the third wave, verified one before, in early 2021.
If these trends are maintained, it is concluded that the government has forecast five weeks to reach the average level of 15 deaths in 14 days. This points to the Easter period, which this year is celebrated on April 17th. It is possible, therefore, that students still wear masks in schools the day before the April holidays, but already return to classes on April 19 without them.
For this to be necessary, it is necessary to keep the decline in deaths, accommodating the effects of the withdrawal and confirmed yesterday announced.