How will Portugal be in 2030? Gulbenkian outlines three scenarios for the country’s future
The space of ten years may be exploring in Portugal as the aeronautics explorations of oceans, and within explorations of the digital ocean as all the potentialities of the 5G territory. It may be a peripheral country capable of improving, and the pyramid of the demographic pyramid, without the capacity to sustain the Pension system and the National Health Service. The hypotheses are open and are brought to light by the project Forecast Portugal 2030released this Friday by the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.
the idea is Looking at the trajectory made by Portugal in the decades, and at the international transformations around it, where you can follow the country in the coming years. With an eye on economic, social change and adaptation to climate change three possible scenarios for the future of the country.
“We have a political class, which goes into great detail about the problems and decisions of the moment, and the rest of the country, which keeps a lot of distance or discusses matters with some superficiality. , “Miguel Poiares Maduro, President of the Scientific Committee of the Future Gulbenkian Forum, describing this mission” study.
The project, which emerged in 2019, crosses economic and financial issues with questions demographic, social, technological, environmental, geoeconomic and geopoliticalwith a view to creating hypotheses that guide strategies as implementation during this decade. The reflection is based on three central themes: growth reform and adaptation to environmental changes, and social mobility.
“We don’t choose any scenario, nor do we say that one is better than another. The scenarios are actually heuristic models, in the sense that we help us to know the range of options we have, but we don’t have options for us nor our political leaders”, highlights Poiares Maduro. “What the study offers is a map of the future and, as with any map, there are roads that can be taken.”
The three different locations reached by the 9 involved in the project are based on three different ones. THE first scenario – “Confidence in continuity” – shows the results of a extension of current policies. THE second scenario – “With ingenuity, in search of a new space in Europe” – portrays the effects of a adjustment in strategy selected by country. Already the third and most ambitious – Portugal 4D – digitization, diversity, dynamism and distinction” – equates a total repositioning from the country.
In addition to the three predicted real scenarios, Foresight Portugal 2030 also provides a European framework and the way in which powers, the distribution of power and the Portuguese future) and a portrait of recent developments and the international evolution of Portugal. In the end, it would still introduce a “wild card” – one that may seem unlikely, but which, on the rise, would significantly change the predicted scenarios: what would happen if public debt occurred in the European Union?
We are a little bit surfers”, José Félix Ribeiro’s curriculum, the growth of the Foresight Portugal 2030 project behind the three major routes and the man traced, “we only arrive – and the beach, in this case, is growth and propagation, if we have the ability to identify like waves”.
The geoeconomic position and relations with other countries
The study projects different scenarios for the position that Portugal may, in 2030, assume, at the international levelof the level of openness that it is capable of assuming.
“We are now a European periphery Even so, assisted by the Europeans, so we have a scenario in which, in practice, we would continue. Then we have another scenario in which we say that the European Union has changed, and today it wants to be a global player. But a third hypothesis is considered that the European Union may not be successful in your proposalor that same place in its own way can’t be realized in a way enough – then, then, there’s a scenario that can’t be realized in European Union, but we seek to have relations with the United States, Japan and the CPLP“, says José Félix Ribeiro.
Thus, in the first scenario, Portugal assumes itself as a peripheral country with continental orientation, which maintains external economic relations with the European Union and bilateral relations in Europe, centers in Spain, Germany, France, in addition to growing relations in Asia, centered on China. .
The scenario is based on a much more Euro-Atlantic matrix and is marked by bilateral relationships-relationships that privilege the States on the Atlantic coast, but which also lack a European in-depth space.
The third scenario foresees a network for a global maritime matrix, in which Portugal takes a maritime and archipelatric matrix, with a strong historical relationship with Asia, more intense with the forums of a prosperous economy and a contribution to the euro, strengthening the CPLP’s international role.
Enhancement of territory, specialization, digital agenda and infrastructure
at the level of territory, the first scenario designed at Foresight Portugal 2030 follows the perspective of continuity and sees Porto as the arcs on which the internationalization of the economy is based. The second scenario already refers to the arch cities of maritime and air relations, thinking of medium-sized cities, while the third environmental scenario brings more historical value and the historical areas of low population density, will make the territory a source of new visitors, new residents and new activities.
In terms of international expertisethe first scenario is based on the offer of new traditional exporters, the second is looking for activities and greater complexity, and the third is centered on investing in four new areas of development – aeronautics, space, oceans, sustainable energy and turquoise – and the creation of new industrial platforms.
When we get to the topic of digital agenda, the scenarios are also divided: the first is centered on the literature of the population and on the modernization of the State and companies; the second offers services and content on the market and the third seeks to combine a digital offer with a national innovation, such as advanced computing, big data and artificial intelligence.
passing to agriculture, the most conservative scenario – as a way of supplying the domestic market, increasing exports and responding to external shocks – not supply, but a second scenario already seen as an element of international specialization, trying to reverse the fall in the irrigable area. Finally, the third scenario opts for the agricultural mobilization of the “four-business, large-scale agriculture” policy; medium agriculture and small agriculture for family consumption.
in relation to water resources and the coastal zone, the first scenario does not foresee diversification of primary water sources and speaks of insufficient protection of the studied aquifers. The second scenario already looks at the strategic reserve of water, in addition to an investment in coastal and estuary areas. The third set also provides for a diversity of water and the use of combinations of sources for its most efficient use.
with regard to energythere is a chance to continue to invest renewable energy in renewable energy, a chance to continue to invest in renewable energy also in renewable energy, or the waves of solar energy generation and renewable energy generation also in renewable energy batteries and bets on cells (fuel cells) to supply electricity and heat in metropolitan areas.
If the theme for transport, the first scenario involves first investing in the track, be it traced in the layout and infrastructure of the North Line, modernization of the Beira Alta and Beira Baixa Lines or in transport to central Europe, with the possibility of a Lisbon-Madrid TGV project. In addition to this investment, the second scenario focuses on road transport and short sea shipping to Central and Northern Europe. The third reduction in the base in the economy of digital resources and in the optimization of the road transport network (with new propulsion and autonomous systems integrated with road transport), in the investment savings of capitalization networks in correct operation (with reduction systems of impact in road transport) and savings in air transport, with the new Lisbon airport and a competent Portuguese air operator.
Finally, speaking of telecommunications, the first scenario continues to be dominated by the delay in installing 5G; the scenario looks to international and international connectivity as a priority and considers a specialization center in the country, which helps a European Ericsson-Nokia consortium; the natural design project an integrated implementation of applications 5, at the level of primary health care, of fire prevention and fire prevention systems, and the circulation of driverless road transport and autonomous vehicles, such as drones.
Economic and social model
In the study released today, the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation does not leave aside the reflection on essential areas of the country’s future, such as the financial system, social protection, education and innovation.
In the first scenario designed by Foresight Portugal 2030, the system is based on commercial banking, on revenue from housing, construction, real estate and infrastructure, and there is a large structure of dependence on European funds for investments. There is continuity in the Social Security and National Health Service model, with sustainability difficulties. Difficulties in getting new jobs are made with a school performance and insufficient preparation for the company’s economy with society.
In the second scenario, there is a growing role for Banco Português de Fomento and an increase in Portuguese companies on Euronext. There is a strengthening of the capitalization of Social Security and a greater articulation between the National Health Service and the Private Services, in addition to the strengthening of the role of primary health care. In terms of generations, courses are planned for new needs (depending on the companies) and a diversification of income support and care facilities for the elderly.
The project project, in addition to the previous solutions, central to the capital market and new forms of performance performance from equity by families. It is also considering the possibility of a universal health education system, of teaching geared towards higher education, innovation skills to be developed in the country, with a new approach in higher education, advanced internationalization of research, creation of an innovation ecosystem .