Will the rain reach the most needy areas of Portugal?
Just yesterday we discussed the possible arrival of rain in mainland Portugal this coming Thursday (10th) and Friday (11th), based on the maps of the European model. However, the latest updates of the withdrawal of a large part of the account that was forecast for days and 11, restricting and eventual irregularities to mere light showers, results of the passage of a weak front, which will pass “grazing” through the north of mainland Portugal.
In this way, only Minho, Trás-os-Montes and other scattered points of ours would receive some water, almost insignificant, especially in the context of a drought that worsens with each passing day.
From drizzles to the possible first expressive front of 2022 in Portugal
With the displacement of the anticyclone to the east, towards the Central Mediterranean, the possibility of possible low pressure systems remains open. In fact, that is what was expected to happen. on the next 10th and 11th, but apparently, Although the frontal disturbance passes through our latitudes, confine itself to the north of the country, leaving only residual determination.
Despite the bleak scenario having to be counted as fully planned from the geopotential and long-term maps, there is an average ray of hope in the cases of a potential situation of instability that can be produced in Iberian territory on the next 13th, especially in the western half (Mainland Portugal).
Although we are a reference within a period of 5 days this time interval is sufficient for some time uncertainty without rain forecast that the ECMWF takes for granted for that day. In fact, if it rains, it would be fulfilled, what would fall on that day as “gold” for the fields and agricultural cropsas well as for forages, pastures and livestock activity in general, among other sectors of water-dependent activities.
Even though, and it is extremely important to note this aspecta potential drop of assignment scheduled for a afternoon of February 13th, next Sundayand which generally rule almost the entire territory of mainland Portugal, must be seen simply as something punctual. It will obviously be quite insufficient to reverse the scenario of very serious drought that the country is going through.
However, it can also be seen as what will possibly be: a mere “oxygen balloon” that very slightly alleviate the drought that plagues the country, and something that can alleviate, albeit sporadically water agriculture in the fields, agricultural agriculture and nutrologists sectors of activity.
Sunday rain episode and its impact on watersheds
As mentioned, on Sunday afternoon, the 13th, face to face, finally, water the country, from the Noro by a poll on national soil through this M. According to the ECMWF locations, there is Valdevez Arches and Lima Bridge what a power accumulate more than 20 liters/mtwo within 24 hours.
Alto and Baixo Minho (Viana do Castelo and Braga) will be the sub-regions most benefited by the “rainfall” forecast for Sundayfollowed by the Porto Metropolitan Area, Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro (Vila Real) and parts of Beira Interior (Viseu). Prevention is predicted to be weak first, it will change to a moderate regime and then it will fall again. On Monday (14) there will be some scattered remnants that would eventually fall all over the continental geography.
Finally, according to official data of SNIRH (National Water Resources Information System), which concern the current levels and water stored in the reservoirs of our country, the proportion of water is low or quite low in several places, especially the Western Algarve, Lima, Ave, Cávado, Mira and Sado (stored volume below 50%) . Thus, despite some ‘optimism’ with Sunday’s episode (13), this significant situation event will be insufficient and unable to say that the form will be significant. As much as you can, but with a lot of expression.
It was necessary to record several consecutive days with general and abundant construction so that water levels were replenished and drought significantly reversed. On the other hand, you can also bet on a better water management in terms of territorial governanceas well as in a investment in water infrastructure. Therefore, answering the question that gives title to this article, the rain will only reach part of the most needy areas (North) but even then it will be insufficient.
Disappointing long-term forecasts
And unfortunately, if we take into account our reference maps, especially the geopotential parameter, everything indicates that we will have a few more weeks with the anticyclone dominating the meteorological panorama in mainland Portugal.