When will it rain again? The specter of drought threatens Portugal
The hydrological year, which starts on October 1st, will be incredibly dry continental from north to south of Portugalsomething that is not surprising, given that in recent years, and especially since 2000, there has been a tendency to increase in the frequency and intensity of drought situations in our country. Incidentally, it is not far behind in the meteorological to realize that the recent past series, ran the year go from 2017, the deficit of number of duration several seasons in a row.
According to official data, this year was the eighth month in a row with values lower than Novemberand autumn was considered, at the time, the driest of the last 46 yearswhereas, also the recorded values above the climatological average. Taking into account the records of the last 20 years, we only find 2005 as a drier year than the current one… And it’s still only February.
But, looking now to present, as already mentioned before, this one is notable for the absence of indication. The last time there was a Christmas rain episode, specifically on the 24th and 25th (Christmas Eve and Christmas 2021)in which a depression affected the entire country.
January 2022 was an extremely dry month, ranking among the three second-most January in the last 20 years. The lack of rain trend observed since the beginning of the current hydrological year continued.
Since then, it only rained momentarily between January 3rd and 6th from north to south of the countrybut it accumulated more water, especially in the North Region, specifically in the Minho and Douro Litoral sub-regions. It also snowed residually in some mountains from the districts of Vila Real and Bragança, in Gerês and Serra da Estrela, between the 4th and 5th of January.
As for the hydrographic basins, all of them present some values of the set below the average and all the worst conditions – Sado, Lima and Barlavento Algarve, for example. On the other hand, on the sides of Madeira, those that come to be other sides and come through Madeira, some come to be sighted and winds through Madeira, some of them come to be sighted.
Extremely dry month of January
The month of January maintained a trend of lack of rain verified since October 2021 and is among the three most second Januarys of the last 20 years. Even with regard to percentage of water in the soil, there was a significant increase compared to the end of December throughout the territory, with values below 20% in the Northeast and South regions standing out.
As for temperatures, it is certain that there have been non-regular thermal oscillations. On the one hand, in many regions during the month of January there was locality that dropped to -5°C or -7°C of minimum temperature (Nordeste Transmontano and Beira Alta), in other locations such as The maximum reaches, several times, the values equal to or greater than 20 ºC and in some cases, relatively close to 25 ºC (Baixo Alentejo and Algarve).
Fleeting weather change in the second half of the week
Today there are showers in Madeira, locally strong in some parts of the Island, such as Calheta and Ribeira Brava. There is a risk of light rain this afternoon in Alto Minho (Viana do Castelo). In the rest of the country the sky will be cloudy or very cloudy.
Tomorrow, the end of a front will move the Alto Minho to the south and east, leaving much to be measured and spread across several locations., mostly from the north, – and within the districts of Viana do Castelo, Braga, Porto, Vila Real, Viseu and Aveiro. In the regions of the country it is expected to remain with overcast skies, except in Zambujeira do Mar and in part of the Algarve where, for different reasons (very small) it will also rain.
Saturday should be a variable weather day, with different regional weather patterns. North and Central Coast with Sun or Overcast Alentejo Skies, Most of the Alentejo, Alto Alentejo and Barla Algarve with Sky, the Rest of Alentejo and Clear Leeward with Cloudy Skies. Azores and Madeira have clear skies and moderate to strong winds.
On Sunday, a clear stabilization of the weather is expected, with clouds necessary and more likely only in the morning in much of the North Region. In the remaining regions of the Continent it will be clear skies. The moderate strong wind will blow from the east and a cooling of the weather is expected, especially the minimums. And what’s next? As of Monday, the anticyclone will strengthen again and, if what the models do, the month of february will also be very dry.