Back to the wall, Paris gives itself 15 days to decide on the future of its presence in Mali
Faced with a hostile junta which has just expelled its ambassador, France has given itself two weeks to consider its future in Mali.
The partner countries of the European group of special forces Takuba, created in 2020 on the initiative of France to share the burden, will work “by mid-February” to “plan an adaptation” of their system in Mali with regard to of the “gradual isolation” of this country, government spokesman Gabriel Attal announced on Tuesday.
“The situation cannot remain as it is. By mid-February, we will work with our partners to see what is the evolution of our presence on the spot” and “to plan an adaptation”, he declared on Franceinfo the day after the announcement of the expulsion of the French ambassador, in reaction to recent statements deemed “hostile” by French officials.
This decision culminates tensions between Bamako and the former colonial power, which still has more than 4,000 soldiers in the Sahel, more than half of them in Mali, despite a reduction in the system caused last summer, offset by the arrival of European reinforcements.
“What the future of the fight against terrorism in the Sahel should be about”
Asked whether French troops were going to withdraw from Mali, the government spokesman noted that Paris had “gradually reduced the sail and we will continue to do so”.
In fact, discussions between Europeans are already going well behind the scenes since the junta’s recent decision to demand the withdrawal of a contingent of Danish special forces, who have come to swell the ranks of the Takuba force, which includes 800 soldiers in Mali.
“Countries will take a decision within the next 14 days on what the future of the fight against terrorism in the Sahel should look like,” Danish Defense Minister Trine Bramsen said on Friday, while Takuba, symbol of a Europe of defense dear to Emmanuel Macron, is today dependent on the goodwill of Bamako to exist.
Bilateral relations have continued to deteriorate since colonels took over by force in August 2020 the head of Mali, plunged since 2012 into a deep security and political crisis. In no hurry to return power to civilians, the putschists have entered into resistance in recent months against a large part of the international community, including its neighbors, and blow on the embers of a latent regional anti-French feeling.
France and its European allies are also alarmed by the call made, according to them, by the junta to the mercenaries of the sulphurous company of Russian mercenaries Wagner, reputed to be close to the Kremlin. The junta persists in denying it.
Many months needed to organize a withdrawal
In the midst of the French presidency of the European Union and three months before the French presidential election in which Emmanuel Macron will no doubt run again, a forced withdrawal from Mali after nine years of commitment at the cost of 48 French deaths (53 in the Sahel ) would constitute an inverted sting. But the attitude of the junta makes this scenario increasingly difficult to avoid, according to many observers.
“Can a French soldier still risk his life for the protection of a bankrupt country which expels its ambassador? “, was indignant on Tuesday on Twitter the retired French colonel Raphaël Bernard, author of the work published in November” In the heart of Barkhane “, named after the French anti-jihadist operation in the Sahel.
However, an exit from Mali is not without difficulty. The disengagement of the French soldiers, firmly deployed on bases in Gao, Ménaka and Gossi, would take many months to organize, according to the staff. In addition, the relocation of Takuba promises to be a headache: neighboring Niger has made it known that it will not host this task force. As for Burkina Faso, it has just experienced a coup d’etat.
The vacuum left by the troops would finally not fail to benefit jihadist movements affiliated, depending on the area, to Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group, which have retained a strong power of nuisance despite the elimination of many leaders.
While the violence has spread to Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as to the north of Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Ghana, France in any case retains the firm intention of maintaining its presence in the region by strengthen its cooperation activities, according to concordant sources.