Debate, Russia | A strengthened NATO can be good news for Norway. Provided there is no war …
Comment This is a comment, written by an editorial staff member. The commentary expresses the writer’s attitudes.
“Chicken” or “chicken” is the name of a game theory variant, perhaps best known from American films where two cars drive at full speed against each other.
“Chicken” and loser becomes the one who first loses heart and turns to the side, but backs away from the cars they collide. Then both participants become losers.
The problem for the players is that neither of them knows how much risk the other is willing to take, so you will wait as long as possible to give way yourself.
Many have compared what is now happening along Ukraine’s borders with such a chicken game where no participants want a war, but they have the best chance to see if the opponents actually think they are willing to risk a collision.
What makes the assessments extra complicated is that there are far more participants than in this particular game, and that the confrontation is really about completely different things than Ukraine.
Ukraine, for example, is not in the driver’s seat of any of the cars that could collide, but risks being smashed between them.
That Russia drives one car is obvious, that the United States drives the other a little less obvious, but still a fact.
Most of Russia has done over Ukraine in recent months has dealt with forcing the United States back to the negotiating table in Europe.
But there are also other than these two drivers who have a hand on the steering wheel. Among them are countries such as Germany, France, China and Iran, as well as associations such as NATO and the EU.
Their interests coincide partly with those of the two drivers, partly in conflict with them, and partly in conflict with each other.
This is also one of the starting points for understanding Russia’s motives, and there is hardly a desire to annex Ukraine.
It will not only lead to new, strong sanctions, but will also lead to large losses of Russian soldiers. Both during an invasion and a subsequent occupation.
Even if he succeeds in creating a certain national enthusiasm in the beginning (even that is doubtful), a prolonged occupation will quickly erode Putin’s position; both in the people and among the elites he has so far succeeded in playing against each other.
The main reason for the escalation is probably rather that Putin right now sees a unique opportunity to also play Western countries and institutions against each other.
- Four years of Donald Trump and the US demand that Europe must take more of the spending have put NATO under pressure.
- Angela Merkel is gone as a stabilizing force in the EU.
- Boris Johnson is desperately fighting to survive as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
- Emmanuel Macron could be replaced as president of France by a right-wing radical politician during the year.
- Joe Biden has become almost as unpopular at home as Donald Trump was.
In this sense, the West right now appears more divided than perhaps ever before, and Putin is doing everything he can to increase the level of conflict.
- He consistently refuses to negotiate with the EU; only NATO applies.
- The fact that the United States is once again heavily involved in Europe will reduce the influx of European countries there.
- Germany and France – the EU’s two main engines – already have different interests when it comes to Russia.
But Putin may have grossly miscalculated in the West. That the United States is shifting its attention from Southeast Asia to Europe probably serves China much more than Russia. It also serves NATO in several areas:
- The organization regains its central place in American security policy thinking.
- Some EU countries (especially France) are planning to develop an EU-based alternative to NATO weakening.
- Countries such as Finland and Sweden are again seriously discussing applying for NATO membership.
This strengthening of NATO is not bad news at all for Norway, which is outside the EU and has our entire security policy base in membership there.
Putin, who himself uses an alleged external threat from the West to gather support for his policies at home, may find that an external enemy is also useful for the unity of NATO and the West.
Especially one who to such an extent acts aggressively and unreasonably towards a small neighboring country that has never threatened Russia.
The prerequisite for this is, of course, that there will be no war in Ukraine. Then we have all lost.
Then we all risk ending up as chickens, grilled chickens.