Political scientist: China will bypass Belarus – Charter’97 :: News from Belarus – Belarusian news – News from Belarus – Republic of Belarus
Chinese experts have calculated the potential economic, economic and investment risks.
The telephone conversation between Lukashenko and the President of the PRC on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the meeting of their relations, according to the law of the leader, would inspire optimism. The parties agreed to “deepen”, “promote” and “develop”, and also strongly supported each other on the international agenda. But what does this support look like in practice?
It became known yesterday that China launched a new container train to Europe bypassing Belarus. The alternative to the Belarusian variant of cargo delivery is only the first sign of the changed Belarusian-Chinese relations. Other Belarusian-Chinese projects are also slowing down.
How political rhetoric differs from concrete steps and can completely refuse transit through Belarus, “Owl” discussed with the director of the Center for Statistical and Foreign Policy Research Arseny Sivitsky…
– The launch of alternative profitable logistics routes was inevitable. This is not surprising. Especially after the Belarusian authorities began to make and threaten to stop transit to Western countries and Ukraine, – an expert on economics. – The decision of South Africa in many countries of the world, leading to the strengthening of international trade of Belarus on the part of Western countries.
At the same time, the crisis of the Belarusian authorities, instead of resolving the crisis, is taking new escalatory steps: threats with a new entry with the help of Afghan reinforcements, the deployment of nuclear weapons, and so on.
From the point of view of China, such a situation is revealed with the profits from economic crimes.
– For China, Belarus is important as an industrial logistics hub and only in the area of advanced relations with the EU, which provide access to the European market. It is obvious that in the current conditions such a state of affairs in relations between Belarus and the West is impossible. Therefore, in order not to cause extreme instability and uncertainty caused by the Belarusian crisis and the behavior of the Belarusian authorities, China begins to hedge these risks.
How much Belarus loses from using the bypass route is still difficult to calculate: China is just considering such a possibility.
“In recent years, we have observed a regular increase in the railway transit of Chinese goods in connection with a number of problems in Belarus, and the Belarusian side quite reasonably made a supply for cooperation with China in this direction,” the expert recalls. – Therefore, losses for Belarus as a result of refusal to transit will be very significant.
But the most important effect, according to the expert, is not economic, but political.
– China will simply be forced to freeze cooperation, because the Belarusian side reached an agreement at a high level back in 2015, when the PRC chairmanship was present in Belarus. Xi Jinping…
Of course, the Belarusian regime is doing everything possible to keep the Chinese partner. And the rhetoric of Alexander Lukashenko speaks of how important it is to preserve these relations. appointments and calls with congratulations, and soon signed Directive No. 9 “On the development of bilateral relations between the Republic of Belarus and the People’s Republic of China.”
– It is obvious that the Belarusian side is making it difficult to maintain Chinese attention for the next five-year period. But this high quality is the wish of the Belarusian side. China seriously assesses the risks associated with Belarus, and considers it safer for itself to work with others, – Arseniy Sivitsky.
Read also
The political scientist recalls that back in 2015, Chinese experts considered possible risks, economic and investment risks in Belarus. And this list is quite long.
Among the risks are “the dominance of a planned economy and the absence of structural reforms, instability of economic policy, increased economic activity and strong dependence on Russia, fears of waiting crisis and potential “import” of the policy of events in Belarus from Russia ”.
– This suggests that China, developing relations with themes or other natural factors, approaches the assessment of possible benefits and losses. And in the case of Belarus, the Chinese side was ready for the development of events, the expert said.
He is confident that, despite the rhetoric, China is gradually monitoring the freeze in relations. As it was between 2011 and 2015, when, due to the west of China, it was forced to curtail all activity in Belarus due to the toxicity of its Belarusian partner.
This toxicity is now higher. And, therefore, one should expect similar behavior from China. Until the technical time, until the 2015 agreements are reached and until Belarus worsens the normalization of relations with the West, China will bypass Belarus as a manifestation of increased risk.
In 2015, against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Belarus replaced Ukraine in the Belt and Road Initiative. Now it is diametrically opposite. For the profitable work of China through Ukraine to advance its economic interests in Europe.