Admissions descend, Portugal with 24 dead and another 4,644 cases – Observer
Baltazar Nunes: there is a lot of uncertainty about Ómicron, but the answer will be given by the number of hospitalizations over 70 years old
“The scenarios that have been developed have a wide margin of uncertainty,” said Baltazar Nunes, a researcher at the Dr. Ricardo Jorge National Institute of Health.
If, on the one hand, an Omicron appears to have greater transmissibility or greater advantage over Delta – which translates into a greater number of cases; on the other hand, “the expression at the level of the increase in hospitalizations is still a great unknown”.
It depends on two factors: severity of the infection – “Everything indicates that it will be equal to or less than Delta”, says the researcher – and the effectiveness of vaccines against severe Omicron disease.
“We know that there is a reduction in the effectiveness of the vaccine against symptomatic infection, but the studies are very recent and with great uncertainty – very small number of cases”, says Baltazar Nunes.
That is, it is less effective in preventing an infection, but it is not known whether it will be less effective in preventing a serious illness. When a Delta replaced an Alpha, there was also reduced protection against infection, but not against hospitalization.
We have some difficulty in defining clear scenarios”, he explains.
If it turns out that vaccines have less protection against hospitalization, even in Portugal, with high vaccine coverage and booster doses, “we may have scenarios in which the number of hospitalizations in intensive care exceeds red lines” and “we may have to adopt other measures to contain a pandemic”.
On the other hand, if the vaccine remains effective against hospitalization, cases of infection may continue to increase, but as beds occupied in intensive care it will not go far beyond red lines.
The great indicator will be the number of hospitalizations in the group over 70 years old who took a booster vaccine recently.