Mathematician predicts 7400 cases of Covid in Portugal within two weeks
Since February, this Wednesday, November 24th, is the third day with the newest cases of Covid-19 in Portugal. A growth that, according to mathematical models, will not stop anytime soon. Óscar Felgueiras, mathematician, is not surprised.
“It is a number that is within expectations. We have been in a situation of exponential growth and the Rt is at 1.20, which means that we are here with a doubling time of cases in the order of two weeks and this has been happening for a while some time, “he explained to the TSF Oscar Felgueiras.
There has been a doubling of cases every two weeks. And, if nothing is done, this trend is the trend that will continue, according to the professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto.
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“What this means is that there was no event that contradicted the trajectory that has been followed. If there is a noticeable difference in the behavior of the population, this will eventually be reflected, with a certain delay, in the number of new cases. happen, what is expected is that the trajectory remains unchanged and what we have is this exponential growth”, predicts the professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto.
Two weeks ago Portugal had registered 1600 new infections. This Wednesday it was almost 3800 and, keeping the trend, in two weeks it will be 7400. Óscar Felgueiras admits that it is likely that these values will be reached.
“The pace at which vaccination is currently going is not, by itself, sufficient to counteract this evolution in numbers. There is an upward dynamic that has been going on for several weeks and that, from the start, will continue. There are none, at the moment. , factors that prevent this is easy. In addition to this, we now have colder weather that will not favor this evolution either, “added the specialist.
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