Sweden holds over 50% Plugin EV share in October, despite slow Tesla month
In October, Sweden’s plug-in electric vehicle market was above 50% for the second month in a row, and increased by 50.9%, an increase from 36.2% a year ago. BEV alone took 22.9% of the market, an increase of 2.8 times compared with the previous year. The total car market volume decreased by 28.5% from last year to 19,957 units. VW ID.4 was again the country’s best-selling all-electric in October.
October’s combined plug-in share of 50.9% was 22.9% for full-battery electricity (BEV), with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) taking 28.0%. This was a shift back towards PHEVs from last month, mainly due to Tesla’s absence during the first month of the new quarter. The cumulative share of plug-ins in 2021 is now 42.5% (16.6% BEV), from 28.6% at this time last year.
PHEV’s sales increased in September, even with total car volume declining, helping to pick up the slack from (1943 units) relative deficits in Tesla deliveries in October. With 50.9% of the market, plugins were still ahead of all plugless powertrains together, for the second month in a row. This will improve further in November and December, and with the possible exception of a slow month or two in early 2022, plugins will now remain over 50% (and climb) into the future.
Sweden’s favorite BEV
With Tesla delivering just 36 vehicles in October (from 1979 in September), last month Volkswagen ID.4 regained the best-selling BEV title, with 640 registered units. Its group sibling, the Skoda Enyaq, came in second with 380 units.
A notable entry into the October ranks was the Mercedes EQS, which registered a decent 54 units during its first volume month. Although it’s way too expensive to be a high volume vehicle, it’s good to see Mercedes finally offering a BEV version of its flagship S-Class. The vehicle’s engineering and relative efficiency show that Mercedes takes BEV design seriously.
As we also saw in Norway, Polestar (and Volvo) now seem to be back to strong BEV volumes after a recent low ebb, where Polestar 2 doubled its sales over September and only missed the October second place ranking.
Since we know that some brands have uneven monthly delivery schedules (obviously Tesla), let’s take a step back and look at the final quarter of BEV sales:
Here we can see that Kia Niro and MG ZS are doing better in the longer term despite both having a slower month in October. Tesla Model Y takes fourth place, from basically just one month of volume sales (September)! This bodes well for the Tesla crossover, and we should see it climb to the top spot in the following quarter at the end of December.
The VW Group MEB siblings (ID.4, Enyaq, Q4) will still cumulatively sell more than Model Y in Sweden soon, at least until Tesla’s Berlin Gigafactory takes off in 2022. There is no shortage of demand for any of these fantastic BEV cars. ; VW Group must increase its MEB volumes ASAP if they want to stay close to the front.
Some of our societies have asked which combustion models still support the old technology in the leading EV transition countries. Unambiguous data are not easy to find for leading Norway, but are available for neighboring Sweden, which has a not too different market (in the graphic, petrol is denoted by P and diesel by D):
Apart from the noticeable predominance of the local brand, Volvo, and the many crossovers from VW, there is nothing too surprising here. Europe’s by far best – selling mass-market cars such as the VW Golf, Ford Focus, Kia Picanto, Renault Clio and Dacia Duster are all well represented, and it is remarkable that there are not yet too many BEV alternatives for their price ranges. Beyond the above short list, there is a long tail of similar basic combustion vehicles from the well-known older brands. Take a look at Car Sweden’s complete listing for more information.
The list suggests that the more expensive ICE vehicles, Volvos, the medium to large VW SUVs (those that already have many convincing BEV alternatives) could see emission restrictions tightened further if they linger too long. Let’s be honest, all of these really should be at least PHEV at this point.
The basic entry-level vehicles can probably not be legislated yet, especially those starting at around € 10,000 (or less), as there are as yet no all-round capable and affordable BEV options in Europe (although Dacia Spring is close to convincing its price, after subsidies).
The current lack of convincing affordable BEV offers in Europe is precisely why we need vehicles such as BYD Dolphin and the like to start selling in the region.
BYD Dolphin. Image with permission: BYD
Sight
What do we have to look forward to in the next two months, with 50% for the plugin share now stable behind us in Sweden? Tesla can now get vehicles from Shanghai in the hands of European customers in less than two months, so we can expect that the second half of November will again see more sales of Model Y and Model 3 in Sweden, which increases this month’s BEV share. I expect that November will see a total plugin share of around 55%.
December, with all brands keen to reach annual targets (both internally and externally required), and consumers increasingly turning their backs on non-plugins, should see over 60% plugin share, perhaps in the 60s at most .
How do you see Sweden’s electric car transition going forward? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
NOTE: Do you have solid information about the duration of the waiting list for BEV in your region? Please let us know below.
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